Europe and Brexit, yesterday & tomorrow

Europe and Brexit, yesterday & tomorrow

It wasn’t a good night for Labour last night and but not as good for the Brexit Party as they might have hoped. This article was written mainly on Tuesday and backdated to Monday 27th. It looks at the impact on the European Union, how the earth moved in the UK,  and the dreadful and inept campaigning decisions taken by the Labour Party. It finishes with a brief look at the immediate reactions in the Labour Party not least the twitter spat between Paul Mason and LOTO.

This is what the European Parliament will look like.

ep-2019-2024-hemisphereFrans Timmermans, the Socialist Spitzenkandat is now appealing for the Euro Liberals (ALDE) to build a progressive alliance in the hope of winning the Presidency of the Commission. How those lost 10 Labour seats would have helped him. This is an important initiative; the European Parliament has been run by the pan-European equivalent of the German grand coalition and while the numbers might have made this necessary, if a progressive majority could establish itself and the German Social Democrats weaned off their alliance with the Christian Democrats then a reform agenda for the EU becomes much easier since the German Social Democrats are both large and influential although. (This reminds me I must write to the Charlottenberg SPD to see what joint work we i.e. Lewisham Labour might do.)

Another good aspect of the results across Europe is that the hard right did less well than they had hoped, although the story in France is less optimistic.

This is the worst result in the Tories history, they have lost big time, their worst result since 1832. The main beneficiaries would seem to be the Brexit Party but some Tories moved to the Lib Dems, Labour and even the Greens. I illustrate the change in seats.

What happend to the votes is best described on Lord Ashcroft’s blog where he presents this chart showing the movement of votes from 2017 to 2019.

It doesn’t make good reading for Labour either. The LibDems stolen slogan, “Bollocks to Brexit” was clearly helpful to them and they have been historically sticky, once people learn to vote for them and they win, they stick with them despite having some disgraceful and unprincipled candidates, although that’s not something they have a monopoly on. (Huhn and Hughes). This was before Clegg & Cable’s tuition fee betrayal and their collusion on the Osborne’s Tory led coalition austerity programme.

If ALDE’s behaviour in the European Parliament repeats this submissive support of the executive committee of the bourgeoisie then this might have some consequences for the Lib Dems & Verhofstadt.

Labour’s hope must be that we have the 2017 manifesto, and many want & need that radical hope. What ever happens Labour needs to be anti-austerity and in my opinion clearer on remaining. Ashcroft In fairness to the Party, we have always believed that Remain is better than a bad or no deal exit.

Another thing that Labour needs to fix is the dreadful campaign. Elements of what might seem deliberate actions are detailed in John Howarth MEP’s letter to his members and published by the Huffington Post who selectively quote him as shall I. He says,

As such it was either phenomenally naive or utterly mendacious to put in place a policy that would knowingly lose votes in remarkable numbers.

From there on the party machine sought to close down any deviation for the suicidal central message. In an unprecedented decision the General Secretary was appointed agent for the entire country. At all other EU election since regional lists were introduced Regional Directors have been agents. They managed the desire of CLPs to promote candidates and help win the elections. The spending limits for these elections are huge, easily capable of accommodating local activity aimed at enhancing the campaign. This time spurious legal grounds were used to clamp down on local activity and even additional union assistance. The much derided nationally produced leaflets which carried no mention of a ‘confirmatory vote’ were presented to MEPs as a fait accomplice that was “already at print” – this turned out to be untrue but it shows how the campaign was run. The eventual product was no better. While it was frustrating to be fighting an election with hands and feet bound and with Labour staff in apparent opposition it is not the fault of junior staff or middle managers – responsibility lies elsewhere.

Howarth elsewhere in his letter talks of the poor role played by the NEC in developing and agreeing the Labour Manifesto.

To his words, I would add the late selection of candidates which delayed the production of election material, ensured there was no trigger ballot and no membership ballot to settle order, the stunningly shit “Fight  Farage” leaflet with his picture FFS and the late delivery of out cards and election addresses; half my canvassing we had no material to leave the very few doubtfuls.

The question I ask is where is the member led party? Conference has been firm that Remain is better than a bad deal! The compromise starts from we oppose a Tory Brexit, tactically we prefer a general election because it’s easier to talk about austerity, jobs, education and the NHS in an election and turnout is better, but elevating the general election to the point of principle and opposing a 2nd referendum is foolish and dishonest.

One silver lining is that the shadow cabinet and Jeremey Corbyn are now arguing that a 2nd referendum is required for any deal; we’ll have to see if the votes are there to push it through. They may have been influenced by Paul Mason’s article and the acrimonious fallout on twitter as he accurately lays the blame at the feet of the Leader of the Opposition’s office (LOTO).

ooOOOoo

Related Posts

‘The people have spoken’: How Remain parties beat Hard Brexiteers in European elections from business insider

Notes From The Cult: After EU. No, After EU from a blog called disappointed idealist, a different take on what happened and what should happen next. He or she starts by looking at who didn’t vote.

Labour’s priority should be helping to build a European socialist left by Sabrina Huck at Labour List

Unhinged by James Butler at the LRB, Labour’s front bench’s room for manoeuvre is constrained by divisions in the PLP and by it’s membership’s enthusiasm. It’s not as free as either side of the debate think.

 

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Vote Labour again

Welcome to the Brexit merry-go-round!

I have been reading the news as have you all. Labour’s promised vote seems to be plummeting, in London in 2017, we got 61% and in the Mayoral election, Sadiq Kahn got 41% of first preferences. Polls are suggesting that Labour is on about 24% in London, although they could be wrong.

Labour supporters should vote Labour.

If you are a Remainer, and we win, these MEPs will sit for 5 years holding a Commission accountable.

Labour’s MEPs will be the Party of European Socialists and will pursue the objects of the PES Manifesto, which is largely influenced by Labour’s agenda of anti-austerity economics and social solidarity. Labour MEPs will vote for the Socialist candidate for the position of President of the Commission.

In London our candidates are good people. Claude Moraes has an exemplary record as European Legislator acting as Rapporteur (i.e. author) for the GDPR which redefined the right of Privacy in Europe. He has been Chair of the Civil Liberties committee, Seb Dance is probably best know for the he’s lying stunt but has been campaigning on environmental rights, Katy Clark used to be an MP and was a strong civil rights campaigner and Laura Parker is an articulate socialist who would strengthen Labour’s parliamentary team; she has been part of the team that has led Momentum to its “remain” supporting decision.

We talk of beating Farage; this is not just important in the UK for our own political health but the number of MEPs in the European Parliament matters. Historically Farage has sat independently with allies but apart from the Fascist parties from France & Hungary. These far-right parties are likely to be joined by the Alternative for Deutschland and the Italian hard right. The idea of an alliance of the political right of such size is frightening and all democrats should do their best to oppose these people. i.e. coming first or second matters in the UK.

The alternative for many seems to be the LibDems. If elected, they will sit with the ALDE group led by Guy Verhofstadt, who has been the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator; he has given up partly because he feels that ALDE will be more powerful without a strong Labour delegation. The British LibDems are no longer part of a British progressive alliance and ALDE cannot be trusted to fight the far-right.

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Labour & Digital

Labour & Digital

Trefor Davies of trefor.net commissioned and published an article by me on the state of the politics of digital and its likely impact on the General Election. In the article I classify the issues around citizenship and economics. Obviously the manifesto has not been published and so prediction of its content is not easy. Regular readers will know that I am a supporter of both the Open Rights Group and Privacy International. I have also served on NESSI, the EU’s internet/I.T. R&D project incubator.  I am hopeful on the issues of citizenship, unsure on copyright and intellectual property laws and expect a good offer on digital government. …

Sort orders and Strasbourg

Sort orders and Strasbourg

I thought I’d share some more thoughts on the European Pariament Election results. The article looks at some sort order silliness on the London ballot paper and then looks at the success or otherwise of the European People’s Party and the gains and losses in the European Parliament by euro-party. In London, the Liberal Democrats came 5th, failing to win a seat, but next after them was a party called 4Freedoms. This was the first on the ballot paper. It was in fact the slate of the European People’s Party, a role once held by the Tories but Cameron had the Tories walk out of the EPP, thus denying them the opportunity to win votes in the UK and denying them another 20 seats on top of their No. 1 spot; they won 214 seats. This may become important as the European Parliament votes and elects its leadership. The reason for putting themselves on the ballot paper is twofold, one, some expatriate Europeans may prefer to vote for a Christian Democrat slate rather than the Tories and it gave their lead candidate, Jean Claude Juncker the opportunity to collect votes, if not seats. …

And the results are in

And the results are in

Due to the delay in the count at Tower Hamlets, I didn’t get the London results for the European Parliament until the following morning. Labour have four out of eight seats in London. In 2012, after the London Mayoral’s I had hoped that Labour would get four seats, but had come to assume this was beyond us. Obviously not, Labour’s 36% gave it four seats, the Tories two and one each for UKIP and the Greens. The LibDems losing their one seat. Labour won the 1st, 3rd, 5th and 7th seats. …

It’s looking good in London

It’s looking good in London

So while we now have some solid data about how people will vote in the European elections i.e. how they voted in their locals, amassing this data into regions is a lot of work. Even the London Councils site is only reporting seats which is not helpful for predicting a proportional counting system. A number of sources have commented that London has rejected UKIP and that my last predictions were based on them getting 21% of the London vote. Both the elections and newspapers poll reporting suggests that the UKIP vote will be lower than that. The papers are also underplaying the size of the Labour council victory. I think London is going to be better than I predicted. …

A digital manifesto for Europe

A digital manifesto for Europe

Perhaps it really is the day we fight back, since the EDRi, the European umbrella digital liberty organisation has over the last couiple of days just launched its manifesto for the European Parliament elections. They have published their manifesto on a pseudo trading site where voters and politicians can pledge their votes and promises in public around the EDRi’s charter which consists of the following 10 points. …

On Hunt’s chances of remaining an MP in 2015

On Hunt’s chances of remaining an MP in 2015

The Lib Dems came a pretty poor second in South West Surrey in 2010, the County Council elected in 2013 is pretty solidly Tory, but the Tories did not win the Surrey Police Commissioner elections. The county includes Hunt’s constituency and the ward results are available. The Police Commissioner and a number of County Councillors are independents, which usually means expelled or secret Tories; there are also UKIP county councilors but none of the non-Tory County Councillors were elected from wards in Hunt’s seat as far as I can tell from a cursory inspection. …