{"id":10779,"date":"2024-03-26T10:49:37","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T10:49:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/?p=10779"},"modified":"2024-03-26T10:49:42","modified_gmt":"2024-03-26T10:49:42","slug":"brexit-and-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/brexit-and-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Brexit and GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This isn’t going well. “The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday said its long-running prediction is \u201cbroadly on track\u201d to show a 15% fall in trade and a 4% reduction in the UK economy’s potential productivity compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU”. Here are some notes and links …<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A GDP chart would be better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Links<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Pipe-dream or inevitability<\/a> or [on Medium<\/a>], by me, a reply to Larry Elliot’s “it’s not so bad & I was right in 2016”, he is wrong on both counts. I look at the figures, and 2016 forecasts, including the Gini co-efficient and answer his suggestion that by staying out, we can inoculate ourselves from the rise of the far right. We can’t!<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. https:\/\/obr.uk\/forecasts-in-depth\/the-economy-forecast\/brexit-analysis\/<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Three Years On, Brexit Casts a Long Shadow Over the UK Economy<\/a>, from the Tony Blair Institute: six charts, on trade volume & impact, red tape, investment (this is devastating), overall performance & forecasts and the negligible impact of new trade deals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. https:\/\/www.economist.com\/britain\/2023\/01\/03\/the-impact-of-brexit-in-charts<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Brexit vote has left U.K.\u2019s economy 5% worse off, Goldman Sachs economists say<\/a> from Fortune Magazine, the full quote is “The British economy is 5% worse off since Brexit, which officially happened about four years ago, as it has stalled trade and investment activity in the country”. CNBC<\/a> also write an article<\/a> on the back of the Goldman’s statement. They say, “Goldman Sachs attributed the economic shortfall to three key factors: reduced trade; weaker business investment; and labor shortages as a result of lower immigration from the EU.”<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. GDP \u2013 International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators<\/a> a research briefing from the House of Commons Library<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. https:\/\/www.brexitspotlight.org\/measuring-the-brexit-impact-on-the-economy-the-evidence-that-points-to-a-self-inflicted-calamity\/<\/a>, the FT diagram above comes from this article.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. UK Is \u2018On Track\u2019 for 4% Hit to Economy From Brexit, OBR Says<\/a> from Bloomberg (\u00a3), but they say, “The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday said its long-running prediction is \u201cbroadly on track\u201d to show a 15% fall in trade and a 4% reduction in the UK economy’s potential productivity compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU”<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Remain<\/a> by me, in 2016, where I first published my collection of forecasts. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    This isn’t going well. “The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday said its long-running prediction is \u201cbroadly on track\u201d to show a 15% fall in trade and a 4% reduction in the UK economy’s potential productivity compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU”. Here are some notes and links …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[137,140],"tags":[1006,138,141],"class_list":["post-10779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-politics","tag-brexit","tag-economics-2","tag-politics-2"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/mastodon.social\/@davelevy_eu\/112161598971583063","error":""},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/berlaymont-davelevy-unsplash.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10779"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10786,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779\/revisions\/10786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}