- \n
- National Debt by country by the IMF<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Public sector debt and money markets operations etc (including reserves) <\/a> by the BoE, I say, “Why is the BoE data so impenetrable?”<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Foreign Debt: Definition and Economic Impact<\/a> from Investopedia – Excessive levels of foreign debt can hamper countries’ ability to invest in their economic future<\/strong>\u2014whether it be via infrastructure, education, or health care\u2014as their limited revenue goes to servicing their loans. This thwarts long-term economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Potential vulnerabilities from a rising stock of foreign-held debt<\/a>, by the OBR<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- UK debt held by foreign investors<\/a>, a series of charts, from 2003, to 2023, focusing on the proportion, which has been increasing but because domestic saving has collapsed. From the OBR July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
![\"a](\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1024x487.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nGemini says<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- What are the negative effects of foreign owned debt ?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Show me the list of countries world wide ordered by foreign held public debt as a proportion of total debt?<\/a> Can’t do that<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- On foreign held debt<\/a>, from OBR 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- On CDS Prices<\/a>, by google gemini<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- On quantitive tightening, and bond longevity<\/a>, by google gemini<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- On interest payments on BoE owned bonds<\/a> by google gemini<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
When I discovered how healthy the CDS prices were by international comparison, I had a little dig and made this chart, <\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nFrom google gemini, https:\/\/gemini.google.com\/app\/9679972ac86a8ddc<\/a> , they say, a table showing the approximate 5-year Sovereign CDS spreads<\/strong> (in basis points, where 100 bps = 1%) at the end of each year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
See also https:\/\/www.worldgovernmentbonds.com\/cds-historical-data\/united-kingdom\/5-years\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
After the ’25 Autumn statement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
I decided to get to grips with the problem of high-yield bond prices, and found the following<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Quantitative tightening and monetary policy stance \u2212 speech by Catherine L. Mann<\/a>, prepared for the IF 75th anniversary conference in Washington DC. The Bank presents Ms Mann’s biography<\/a> on their web site. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What is quantitative tightening and how has it affected UK finances?<\/a> from the Guardian, explains that QE’s objective was to bring down yields by creating a demand for bonds. I thought it was to ease loans by swapping bank assets for cash. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Debt Management Report 2025-26 <\/a> by the Treasury, they say, “The UK\u2019s stock of index-linked debt stood at around \u00a3619 billion at the end of 2024, making up 24.5% of the government\u2019s wholesale debt portfolio”<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Index linked bonds depend on the RPI, which includes mortgage costs<\/a> which depend upon market interest rates. This is potentially a vicious circle and certainly weakens the use of high interest rates as an anti-inflation measure. ChatGPT comments <\/a>on the role of interest itself in the RPI.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Potential vulnerabilities from a rising stock of foreign held debt<\/a> from the OBR<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Household savings rates over time<\/a>, from ONS<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What is the market interest rate, see the Sonia benchmark<\/a> from the Bank of England<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- How likely is HMG to default? See the CDS price historical data for the UK 5-year bond<\/a> from world government bonds, and how to convert it to a risk ratio<\/a>, the market has the risk ratio of UK default at 0.3% for one year and 1.3% over five years, so not very likely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The FT reports on the recent Capital Adequacy tests<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
More …<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Some leftist economic policies<\/a> on macro, but references a debt ceiling via Rachel Reeves: Between a Rock and a Hard Place<\/a>, by Simon Nixon at Bylines Times. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/programs\/debt-statistics\/ids<\/a> from the World Bank<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- General Government Debt by the IMF<\/a> the IMF page, with UK\/US\/Italy\/Japan charted PSBR\/GDP. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Public finances: Economic indicators<\/a> HoC LIbrary, 20 June 2025<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I wanted to write something on the National Debt as a constraint on fiscal policy, here are my confusing notes; which I added to in the winter of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[137],"tags":[138,1334,2177,2176,1336],"class_list":["post-12525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-economics-2","tag-macroeconomics","tag-national-debt","tag-psbr","tag-public-debt"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/mastodon.social\/@davelevy_eu\/114785474403283286","error":""},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-zlatakycz-unsplash-w1080.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12525"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13888,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12525\/revisions\/13888"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/programs\/debt-statistics\/ids<\/a> from the World Bank<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What is quantitative tightening and how has it affected UK finances?<\/a> from the Guardian, explains that QE’s objective was to bring down yields by creating a demand for bonds. I thought it was to ease loans by swapping bank assets for cash. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Show me the list of countries world wide ordered by foreign held public debt as a proportion of total debt?<\/a> Can’t do that<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Public sector debt and money markets operations etc (including reserves) <\/a> by the BoE, I say, “Why is the BoE data so impenetrable?”<\/li>\n\n\n\n