{"id":2592,"date":"2015-03-28T12:39:05","date_gmt":"2015-03-28T12:39:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wiki.davelevy.info\/?p=2592"},"modified":"2015-03-28T12:39:05","modified_gmt":"2015-03-28T12:39:05","slug":"estimation-errors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/estimation-errors\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimation Errors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Is there any theory that talks to human optimism or pessimism when making estimates in the context of contracts. I have worked with project managers who when estimating effort &amp; duration look to counter the uplift applied by people who think they&#8217;re going to have to do what they&#8217;re estimating and will be treated more harshly for being late than early. There&#8217;s some type I &amp; type II error stuff here. I think it also applies to risk probability estimation, the cost of not reserving and the reputation damage to the assessor (of under estimating) may both lead to an over-estimate being made.<\/p>\n<p>Surowiecki, in wisdom of crowds states that the betting exchanges (and books) are accurate estimators more so than opinion polls because people have measurable stake in the decision.<\/p>\n<p>Has anyone written about this?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is there any theory that talks to human optimism or pessimism when making estimates in the context of contracts. I have worked with project managers who when estimating effort &amp; duration look to counter the uplift applied by people who think they&#8217;re going to have to do what they&#8217;re estimating and will be treated more&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[137],"tags":[138,853],"class_list":["post-2592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-economics-2","tag-estimation"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/errorville.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}