{"id":5578,"date":"2021-02-17T16:30:22","date_gmt":"2021-02-17T16:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/?p=5578"},"modified":"2023-01-04T17:36:54","modified_gmt":"2023-01-04T17:36:54","slug":"what-is-to-be-done-about-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/what-is-to-be-done-about-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"What is to be done? (About Brexit)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s turning pear shaped, that Brexit, not as easy as they thought, and maybe worse than Remainers predicted. Here are some notes that I made for the AEIP National Committee meeting. I quote from blog articles of mine and other sources, and will try and turn this into a blog article later in the week. Anyway, as they say on Youtube, let&#8217;s get to it &#8230;<br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<h3>The Tories Alternative<\/h3>\n<p>So it seems the Tories are pushing this, in more ways than one,<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"gkCWackf77\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/tpp-mk-ii\/\">TPP Mk II<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;TPP Mk II&#8221; &#8212; davelevy . info \/ wiki\" src=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/tpp-mk-ii\/embed\/#?secret=KCL6GcJHgh#?secret=gkCWackf77\" data-secret=\"gkCWackf77\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>It includes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymaverick.co.za\/article\/2021-02-16-who-will-really-benefit-from-britains-tilt-towards-trade-with-asia\/\">a link to Nick Dearden&#8217;s takedown<\/a> of the treaty.<\/p>\n<h3>The immediate failures<\/h3>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Ax9kr21cYL\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/brexit-month-one\/\">Brexit, Month One<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Brexit, Month One&#8221; &#8212; davelevy . info \/ wiki\" src=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/brexit-month-one\/embed\/#?secret=5mfncavExh#?secret=Ax9kr21cYL\" data-secret=\"Ax9kr21cYL\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>Trolling the Brexiteers<\/h3>\n<p>I say on, <a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/the-eu-too-early-to-ask-to-rejoin\/\">https:\/\/davelevy.info\/the-eu-too-early-to-ask-to-rejoin\/<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I had thought \u201crejoining the EU\u201d to be off the table for years but the post Brexit trade deal is turning to shit even more quickly than I expected. Again, I over-estimate the Tories; if I was planning to fuck up the economy, and betray noisy element of my electoral coalition, I\u2019d have sort have planned to do it over a period of time, inspired by the instruction manual of how to boil a frog, hoping they wouldn\u2019t notice. But no, within days, it\u2019s clear that its <a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/happy-fish\/\">useless to catch fish<\/a> if you can\u2019t sell it, that a customs border between Britain and Northern Ireland is going to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-northern-ireland-55575988\">a problem in supplying northern Irish supermarkets<\/a>, that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bignewsnetwork.com\/news\/267421145\/many-uk-companies-looking-to-relocate-to-europe\">warehousing jobs are going to move<\/a> to the continent, that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-55786974\">exporters are going to have to open European offices<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/1CheshireCheese\/status\/1352534850142687232?s=20\">in the case of some food businesses<\/a> stop exporting, that exported goods in transit over the turn of the year will be <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20210227185847\/https:\/\/www.thenational.scot\/news\/19032842.snp-condemn-tory-brexit-deal-retailers-burn-goods-stuck-eu\/\">returned and\/or burnt<\/a> and that supply chains will <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20210121190153\/https:\/\/www.sunderlandecho.com\/business\/nissan-suspend-production-sunderland-covid-hits-supply-lines-3108913\">be disrupted<\/a> impacting British manufacturing productivity. While we may be in a tariff free agreement, the trade border is not frictionless and this friction will cost people money, their jobs and in some cases, patron owned small businesses, many with long histories of success will sadly go under. We need to remember <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475\">Boris\u2019s summary of his industrial policy, \u201cFuck Business\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>While I believe that we should <a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/how-to-rejoin-the-eu\/\">rejoin<\/a>, but there are two problems, one the Tories and secondly, there will need to be unanimity amongst the member states and many of them will be fed up with our behaviour over not only the last 11 months but in much of the time leading up to our 2016 vote. We will need to show that we\u2019ll be better Europeans and probably show it for a sustained period. We are unlikely to get our opt-outs back, on the financial rebate, immigration, the economic stability pact, the Justice Chapter and our opt-out from the goals of further political and economic union which includes the Euro. This Tory government will not agree to these goals, and the country will need to show a renewed commitment to the European project by kicking them out. The time taken to negotiate a true re-entry could be some time, the quickest ever was Finland which took three years and much may depend on how we choose to use our new found sovereignty. In theory we have currently adopted the acquis and so can prove our ability to meet the market pressures and obligations of the single market. The only question out-standing is are we sufficiently democratic given we have an appointed second chamber and no basic law. We should note that our financial contribution will be welcome.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I say on <a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/is-he-up-to-it\/\">https:\/\/davelevy.info\/is-he-up-to-it\/<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>He has been good in the Commons, but it only counts if the press report it; he\u2019s been poor on PPE, poor &amp; late on lockdown, \u00a0poor on last summer\u2019s exams, poor on COVID-19 safety in schools, the choice of competence and not corruption is questionable, we are poor, virtually silent, on sick pay and redundancy pay, have abstained on human rights law diminutions by not properly opposing the spycops law, \u00a0nor supporting the extension of the eviction\u00a0 ban and his collusion on Brexit, both not arguing to extend transition and agreeing the, what is now obviously seen even in such a short time, terrible future relationship and <a title=\"The vote on the withdrawal agreement was made before Sir Keir became Leader; it is what establishes the NI protocol or customs barrier in the Irish Sea. This is what Jeremy Corbyn, the then Leader of the Labour Party said, when committing Labour to vote against it, 'That is why Labour will not support this Bill as we remain certain there is a better and fairer way for this country to leave the EU. One which would not risk ripping our communities apart, selling out our public services or sacrificing hundreds of thousands of jobs in the process. This deal is a roadmap for the reckless direction in which the government and the Prime Minister are determined to take our country.'\" href=\"https:\/\/labour.org.uk\/press\/jeremy-corbyns-response-to-the-eu-withdrawal-agreement-bill\/\">withdrawal agreements<\/a> makes dealing with the fallout from Brexit more than tricky and we again collude with the laws that may yet reopen the lethal armed violence in Northern Ireland. He is also backing Boris on Scottish independence, a brave move, given how we got to where we are in Scotland. Are you sure he\u2019s up to it?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So what is to be done?<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anothereurope.org\/conference-2020-report-and-final-strategy-document\/\">AEIP 2020 Strategy is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This, shows <a href=\"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/how-to-rejoin-the-eu\/\">the legal way to rejoin<\/a>, but it need an unanimity amongst the member states somoe off whom could well be pissed off with us, and they&#8217;d probably want to see a sustained bi-partisan commitment to rejoining, so what are the alternatives?<\/p>\n<p>These are to develop the Future Relationship Treaty, adopt a Swiss model or to join EFTA\/EEA.<\/p>\n<p>My intelligence says that the EEA don\u2019t want us since we are too big, and the \u00a0EU don\u2019t want the multi-treaty model pursued by the Swiss, so the choice is between an A49 rejoin or to campaign to fix the Future Relationships Treaty in particular in articulating the energising of the Parliamentary Assembly.<\/p>\n<p>I argue that we need to rejoin the Customs Union and Single Market. This is needed to eliminate the new frictions and reduce the growing threat to peace in NI.<\/p>\n<p>The question I ask is that do we do this by stealth or vibrantly in public. If a short term aim, then we need to weaken the loons in the Tory Party and get the Labour front-bench to recognise the mistake they made in agreeing the Future Relationships treaty.<\/p>\n<p>We need to argue to restore the Brexit committee and open trade policy up to parliamentary scrutiny so that there is a place to have these debates. If a select committee is unobtainable, maybe we and our allies could look and see if any of the APPGs were suitable? There is a Commons <a href=\"https:\/\/committees.parliament.uk\/committee\/69\/european-scrutiny-committee\/membership\/\">European Scrutiny Committee<\/a>. which is running two Inquiries &#8230; be interesting to find out how to input into those.<\/p>\n<p>The CPTPP is a risk to the project as we transfer sovereignty from the EU to the CPTPP, which has its own Commission.<\/p>\n<p>We should campaign to release the risk analysis on the Future Relationship treaty!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s turning pear shaped, that Brexit, not as easy as they thought, and maybe worse than Remainers predicted. Here are some notes that I made for the AEIP National Committee meeting. I quote from blog articles of mine and other sources, and will try and turn this into a blog article later in the week&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[140],"tags":[1006,1579,1007,1335,141,1563],"class_list":["post-5578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-brexit","tag-cptpp","tag-european-union","tag-international-trade","tag-politics-2","tag-postbrexitdeal"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/felixstowe-inks-w1024-cropped.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5578"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6952,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5578\/revisions\/6952"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davelevy.info\/wiki\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}