Political Tech 25, a review

the door sign at the Political Tech Summit 25

I attended Political Tech 25 in Berlin in January. The slides and videos are sadly not yet ready but here is a reflection from my notes. I spent the first part of the morning in the plenary hall, and then visited the break out rooms. These notes cover insights into “elections and electioneering”, and “IT, Social Media and Persuasiveness”; I also cover a presentation from the Labour Party about their successful campaign in a separate document. Possibly the key lesson is that old school techniques still work, that AI is not yet used for communicating with people and the social media companies need to be treated as hostile spaces for progressives. I also include a short summary from the LP{ presentation. Use the "Read More" button to see my key learning points and links to the two documents,. ...

Best for Britain on Trumps trade war

Best for Britain logo

I subscribe to Best for Britain’s news letter and they sent me the following. I can’t find it on their web site and so I have posted it here. Their front page has a comprehensive response to Trump’s trade war and is worth a look. Unlike me they are not focusing on the need for the single market to access the protection of the EU’s Digital Services Act and in fact are fundamentally in the “Fix Brexit” campaign, but what they say is interesting.

quote

As you’ll no doubt have seen, the UK joins Brazil, Australia, and the uninhabited Heard Island – along with almost every other country in the world – in being slapped with a 10% tariff on all imports to the US. The EU has fared even worse, as they stare down the prospect of a 20% tariff. Unaddressed, this unprovoked and punitive move by Trump could wipe out all efforts to grow our economies, both here in the UK and in the EU.

We knew this was coming. Which is why we asked Frontier Economics to model how a better UK-EU trade deal could minimise the impact of Trump tariffs. The results should spur a simultaneous sigh of relief across Whitehall.

Not only would a common sense deal between the EU and UK cancel out the economic hit to the UK from Trump’s tariffs, it could also grow our economy by up to 1.5%. And those areas hit hardest by tariffs – manufacturing hubs like the Midlands and North East England – would see the greatest benefit. A deal that includes deep alignment between the UK and EU on goods and services would also shield the EU, reducing the impact of tariffs on the bloc by around a third. 

Those sighs of relief should ripple around the Cabinet table too when you add in the results of our latest polling. Three times as many people think we should increase trade with the EU in response to Trump’s tariffs, compared to just 14% who say we should be sucking up to Trump in the hope of an exemption.

If there was any doubt, Trump is no friend of the UK. His unprovoked trade war will be felt by ordinary people across the country, in our pockets and in cuts to public spending. Anyone seeking to spin this slap in the face as a ‘Brexit win’ should remember the thousands now at risk of losing their jobs, and that Brexit itself has caused far more economic damage than Trump’s tariffs ever could.

But if we tear down barriers to UK-EU trade, we can gain significantly more from our largest trading partner than we stand to lose as a result of back-of-the-envelope calculations made in Washington.

In these choppy geopolitical waters, we’ll keep pushing the government to make the right decision and seek stability for us, and for our EU neighbours. Thank you for your support in helping us do it. …

Liberation Day

A night time shot of Baltimore harbour

Today, or Yesterday depending on where you are the US announced a series of tariff increases around the world.

The FT explains how they calculated the tariffs; they engineered a number from the balance of trade deficit between the US and their trading partners. This has been a big surprise to most international trade economists. This is written in an amusing style asking questions on economics and supply chains, since the calculation method penalises, those countries supplying goods that the US cannot fulfil domestically, such as bananas and coffee.

In an article called, the stupidest chart you’ll see today, which I cannot understand, but they observe that a floor value of 10% has also been set, and comment,

One last thing not widely mentioned yet — there is also a baseline 10 per cent minimum tariff. Without this minimum, the UK would be treated with a negative tariff. So much for special treatment.

The original article points at the book Trade wars are class wars, where on its hosting page, they say,

Trade disputes are usually understood as conflicts between countries with competing national interests, but as Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis show, they are often the unexpected result of domestic political choices to serve the interests of the rich at the expense of workers and ordinary retirees. Klein and Pettis trace the origins of today’s trade wars to decisions made by politicians and business leaders in China, Europe, and the United States over the past thirty years. Across the world, the rich have prospered while workers can no longer afford to buy what they produce, have lost their jobs, or have been forced into higher levels of debt. In this thought‑provoking challenge to mainstream views, the authors provide a cohesive narrative that shows how the class wars of rising inequality are a threat to the global economy and international peace—and what we can do about it.

 …

The Newsagents on Trump, Trade and Debt

a picture of

In this podcast at the newsgents, the presenters talk about Trump’s tariffs and his liberation day and the impact on the UK’s public finances. This article is a reply.

The guardian reports US Department of State, channelling JD Vance, has raised the issue of “freedom of speech” in the current trade negotiations and are ‘concerned’ about the possible sanctions against an anti-abortion demonstrator who has been convicted of demonstrating too close to a clinic. The identification of ‘free speech’ as a trade issue is not just caprice. It was raised dramatically by JD Vance at the Munich security conference earlier this year.  It is part of their pro-oligarch agenda; they are frightened of European regulators and the massive fines levied on the US high tech firms and now that Musk has bought twitter, the social media companies and their ‘freedom of speech’ is a tool by which they seek to maintain their power.

I was curious that they identified the fact that Trump respects those that strike back and yet spoke favourably of Starmer’s weak response, particularly when compared with both the EU’s and the US’s neighbours.

While they spoke of the short term economic results as a possible constraint on Trump’s behaviour, I suggest that the only constraint that concerns him is his popularity which since he can’t run again is of limited use to him. Curiously, I read an article by Lawrence Lessig today suggesting the founding fathers deliberately excluded term limits on the grounds that a desire for re-election would act as a moderator on behaviour. They were particularly concerned about kleptocracy, although Hamilton used the word plunder.

In the second part of the interview, they speak to Andy Haldane, once Chief Economist of the Bank of England. He argues that the trade war will blow Reeves’ plan off course as it lacks what he and others call fiscal head room. He argues that higher taxes will need to be raised but that the bond markets will live with a plan that works i.e. delivers growth, which he argues needs to be based on defence industries.

Itr was always unlikely that Haldane would argue that since the purpose of the golden rules and even the growth strategy is to reduce the national debt, what needs to change are the rules, the independence of the Bank of England and Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR). The progressive inventors of the fiscal golden rules argued that that their purpose was to protect investment. The purpose of Reeves’ iteration of the rules is to pay off the debt.

One justification against borrowing to fund investment, is the interest costs but Google reports that “As of 2023, Japan’s government debt to GDP ratio was 255.20%, while the UK’s was around 98.5%.” How can Japan fund their debt while the UK cannot?

I also question the efficacy of the government’s proposed industrial strategy; historically private sector capital has not invested in UK innovation which has been funded by retained profits.

It is frustrating that commentators like Haldane can’t or won’t mention easing trade barriers with Europe as a means of stimulating export led growth and that no digital liberty campaigners are arguing to rejoin the single market in order to implement the Digital Services Act which the US social media companies rightly fear.

Reeves’ rules are aimed at the wrong policy outcome, and her capitulation of judgement to the OBR is a democratic mistake which merely constrains her room for manoeuvre. In my view its time to review the independence of the Bank of England and the existance of the OBR. Economic policy should be the outcome of a democratic process, not a technocratic black box built by the dead.  

I say more at this article on my blog, and on industrial policy at Chartist Magazine.  …