How much has Brexit cost us?

Reuters Square, if its still called that in black and white.

While posting my notes on my reference back for Labour Conference I fell back on the OBR statistic that Brexit had cost the UK 4% of GDP. I thought a chart would have been helpful and so went looking for one.

The NIESR published an article, Revisiting the effects of Brexit, which now they’ve archived it, no longer has the chart they made from the model, but google search can still find it today.

Their model tries to disentangle the effects of the COVID slump, and the article, dated 2023, says,

These estimates suggest that Brexit had already reduced UK real GDP relative to the baseline by just under one per cent in 2020 as consumers and businesses adapted their expectations even before the TCA came into force. Our estimates further suggest that three years after the transition period, UK real GDP is some 2-3 per cent lower due to Brexit, compared to a scenario where the United Kingdom retained EU membership.

 …

Today’s issues for Labour

Portraits, Powell and Phillipson

Labour is holding an election for the position of Deputy Leader, I have five questions I want to ask them.

  1. Where do you stand on immigration and the fact that copying Reform legitimises and emboldens them?
  2. Where do you stand on closer relations with the EU on defence, trade and economic co-operation? Where do you stand on rejoining the single-market?
  3. Where do you stand on fiscal/monetary policy? How can we end austerity and make people feel better off and what will you do?
  4. Where do you stand on Welfare reform? Why are we increasing poverty?
  5. What do you think the Government should do about Gaza and Palestine?
  6. I believe a Deputy Leader, in fact all MPs, should represent the Party membership to the PLP and its leadership, will you start to do this?
  7. What measures will you take to turn the Party’s democracy back on?

Now how to put these questions to them. …

#Lab25 will get to debate rejoining the EU

Labour Conference 2019 from the balcony

At the General Committee of Lewisham North last night we agreed to send a motion calling for the abolition of the two child benefit cap, and also proposed a reference back of the NPF report. I intiallly proposed the words in a blog article posted last week. This article repeats some of the text of the reference back and my notes for my moving speech, and right of reply, as it was opposed by both those who think that being outside the EU is a good thing, and those who fear Farage and think the time is wrong.

The crux of the reference back is,

Conference calls on the NPF to look beyond the ’24 manifesto commitments with respect to the EU relationship and to press for faster re-alignment with the EU single market within this parliament and to examine the possibility of rejoining  the European Union being a manifesto promise for the next general election.

Here are my notes, in moving the proposal,

The NPF report talks of much progress but draws little conclusions. It makes much of the UK-EU summit in May, which itself was inconclusive. No agreements were made. Not even on the softest of targets, Defence.

This reference back calls for the NPF to consider looking beyond the ’24 manifesto commitments with respect to the EU relationship and to press for faster re-alignment with the EU single market, within this parliament, and to examine the possibility of rejoining the European Union being a manifesto promise for the next general election.

In addition to its lack of ambition, the report fails to mention the reset meetings requirements that the UK must fully implement its commitments under the “withdrawal agreement”, the Windsor framework and the “Trade and cooperation agreement” and that, as said, it failed to conclude any improvement in the formal relationships between the United Kingdom and the European Union, including on youth mobility.

The OBR estimates that exit from the single market has cost the economy 4% of its value, this is not something that a growth mission driven government should leave on the table.

The fundamental reason for the UK’s poor economic performance is a lack of investment. Rejoining the single market would ease the entry of European capital into the UK investment market, and help to remediate the unpatriotic and global nature of the shrinking London capital markets which leaves the primary source of domestic investment to retained profits. It would also make the housing market goals easier to achieve as in order to build more houses the UK needs skills, effort and bricks from abroad.

A changed mood disguised by Brexit adjacent red-lines are not enough and chasing the dying Brexiteer vote is not a strategy for success.

But when making policy, we need to consider what’s right and not just what’s popular.

Please send this to Conference so it is at least debated and visible.

And my notes of my right of reply,

The referendum decision was taken three elections and 9 years ago. It is a dead and failed mandate.

For those of you who hang onto your line from the seventies, you were wrong in 79, wrong in 2016 and wrong today; for those that argue it’s a barrier to a socialist government may I remind you of the author of  the doctrine of “Socialism in one country”.

For those that fear giving Farage space, you can’t fight him by agreeing with him. He’s wrong on Europe and wrong on immigration and we need to say so.

For those who fear Reform’s reaction, when making policy and making promises, at least those we mean to keep, we should consider what’s right and not what’s popular with people who will never vote for us.

Our Spanish comrade suggested this is premature, he argues the Party needs an agreement about how to rejoin and that will take us time. I say what  better way to start the conversation than by taking it to Labour Conference.

 …

A more hostile environment

the ECtHR building from the air and at night

On 1st September, 2025, Yvette Cooper made yet another immigration policy announcement, most startlingly, prohibiting, refugees, who enter the country irregularly from bringing their family with them: reported by the Guardian & BBC. We should bear in mind that there are no legal routes for refugees to enter the country and they have the right to claim asylum here,

In addition there’s a growing mood music inside the Government to amend, or leave the ECHR; this demans originates from the Tories and Reform and is entering the Labour Party via the parasitic Blue Labour current. It’s now being repeated by cabinet members.

We should all bear in mind that the UK is currently a good citizen as far as the ECtHR is concerned, it only appeared three times last year, and only lost once, and that was to the Daily Mail in a dispute about libel costs.

The ECHR and the UK’s Human Rights Act are designed to protect citizens that’s you and me from oppressive governments. If it’s a problem to governments, then they can easily solve their problem by behaving decently.

The Labour Campaign for Free Movement is campaigning for a motion on immigration, refugees and asylum to go to Labour Conference 25. I have set up my #lab25 conference.

Here is what the Guardian had to say,

 …

On the necessary regulation of AI

a robot issuing a parking ticket, generated by deepai.org

I wrote a piece for Chartist on AI & its regulation, which I have signposted on LInkedin. I look at its likely macro-economic effects and the essential defence of Article 22 of the GDPR, where I say,

… the most important defences that we as citizens, workers, and consumers have is the EU’s GDPR, which in Article 22 & Recital 71 establishes what they call a right to “freedom from profiling”. This, through the rulings of the CJEU, has become quite extensive and now prohibits such things as ‘general monitoring’, a legal protection brought forcefully to light by the French supervisory authority fining Amazon €32m for violations of the GDPR within their workforce management regime.

In the article, I talk about the problem of Authority vs Popularity, the need for open source, and source citation. I also review the need for some innovators for privacy and competitive advantage and the possible future of regulation of AI to ensure decency and accountability. I also look at the patchy European response and the paradoxical attitude of the US.

I conclude.

In summary, there are plenty of laws to ensure that AI and its owners behave decently, and in some European countries, the will and resources to enforce them, but it’s not universal. Also, there are important economic countervailing forces opposing the creation of a privately owned “Global Intellect” even if the current technology is capable of such a task.

 …

Thoughts on Labour’s NPF Report ’25

Thoughts on Labour’s NPF Report ’25

This article looks at the development of Labour's Policy as its annual Conference approaches. It looks at the rules commitment to "voting in parts", and reproduces an NPF report reference back motion on the subject of the relationship with the EU that I shall take to my local party. My motion calls to rejoin the single market immediately and to promise to rejoin the EU in the next manifesto. To read the whole article, use the "Read More" button ...

Agile, SCRUM and optimism

two men at a transparent wall board

I have posted an article to my Linkedin blog. I had come across an article on medium, and so probably behind their paywall, called, “The Death of Agile: Why Tech Giants Are Abandoning Scrum and What They Use Instead”. One of the alternatives the author suggests is a zero methodology regime.

I extracted what I consider important from the article and argue these are critiques of SCRUM not necessarily of Agile.  I made a note in 2021, called SCRUM, where after listing a series of critiques of SCRUM, I highlighted four of the principles from the Agile manifesto, which I think remain relevant,

·       Individuals and interactions over processes and tools

·       Working software over comprehensive documentation

·       Customer collaboration over contract negotiation

·       Responding to change over following a plan

While not a fan of poor documentation, as I don’t consider the product finished without good documentation, these are useful, people centric and optimistic strategies.They rely on empowering talent, not micromanaging it.

I first wrote about Theory X/Theory Y in my blog article “Maximising Creativity” (2004), where I acknowledge its authorship by Douglas McGregor. I first heard about it in the ’80’s and McGregor wrote his book , “The Human Side of Enterprise”, in 1960.

In my previous article I concluded that while Agile maybe a Theory Y methodology/ideology, SCRUM is not, it is a Theory X methodology and the result of a Theory X methodologies is a Theory X organisation. …

More on the ‘great reset’ meeting

Kier Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen in a conference room

In an article/podcast in inews, entitled "Starmer's Government sees closer ties with the EU as a key part of plans to ramp up economic growth",  the issue of deals with global partners to be a key part of trying to make Britain a more attractive destination for investment is allegedly discussed. See the full article at 'RemovePaywalls.com'. I made some notes inspired or provoked by this article, which was published in late July. Although much of this is extracted quotes, I make some comments. For more, use the 'Read More' button ...

Happy birthday

a chocolate birthday cake

Today, is the 21st anniversary of starting this blog. The first article called “Online at last” is still available.

Back then I promised or hoped that some of what I put here, about IT issues, business and Computer Games (including Baldur’s Gate 2) will be interesting, innovative and useful. I also expect to just put some simple stuff up; stuff that does not warrant a web page, maybe I’ll x-ref my amazon book reviews and put up some that I don’t expect to publish elsewhere. I doubt I’ll be writing about either cooking or DIY. [It took a while but for various reasons I took up both although usually publish my thoughts and research on these topics a separate subsite. ] I am still writing about games too.

I catalogue the history of the site on my History & Aims page. It’s gone through phases, and today is mainly about politics and technology and technology regulation. The more personal stuff is currently posted to the wiki, and the technical stuff is often previewed on my linkedin blog. I usually cross post to Medium, where I can be followed, if you are a member and would like to follow me there.

 …

Tariffs and other trade barriers

image of the alaskan highway

Last night I watched a video about Canada raising a large toll on lorries travelling from the Lower 48 to Alaska, and it documents and forecast the impact on the fragile Alaskan economy. It reminded me of the trade barriers that the UK has put in place due to Brexit. This is potentially disastrous for Alaska, and is clearly so for the UK where today the FT reports that according to the ONS, the UK economy shrank for the second quarter in a row.

The trade to GDP rate in the UK is 63%, which seems enormous to me, but it seems to be merely above average and yet it illustrates the UK’s dependency on the rest of the world to feed itself and keep itself warm and sheltered. The US rate is 25% which is low by international comparison and may be one of the reasons that Trump can afford to be as foolish as he is with his tariff policies, noting that it’s the US consumers who ultimately pay his tariffs. Source: World Bank.

The EU flag, before castor and pollux,

But for the UK, this is another piece of evidence that the UK needs to rejoin the EU’s single market, but even if this common sense actually strikes this Labour government, I doubt that the Eire/Holland/France traffic will return to the UK. …