Good luck and thank you

Here’s a picture of the Cable Car to the top of the Aguille Rouge.

Possibly over 20 years ago, I caught a chair lift to a point just below here, and was left by my companions; I fell and slide a long way. I was stopped by a very skilled woman, who skied down from above, and caught up with me and who dug her skis into the snow at a point where I was travelling at my slowest. I was somewhat shaken and didn’t say thank you properly. Now’s the time, “Thank You”. I was very lucky. …

Popular

Playing with Deepart made me wonder which of my pictures on flickr were the most popular. These are they, mainly in order; yes, the Danish Flag is first. The pictures from my trip to Bury Court are very well viewed. Make what you will of the rest. The pictures are below/overleaf …  …

Risk, bias and planning

Risk, bias and planning

A couple of years ago, I wrote a precis of the McKinsey Quarterly article, “Distortions and deceptions in strategic decisions”. They started with a review of the way human bias can adversely impact strategic investment decisions illustrating it with a story about a mega-merger which failed. They conclude the article with,

Companies can’t afford to ignore the human factor in the making of strategic decisions. They can greatly improve their chances of making good ones by becoming more aware of the way cognitive biases can mislead them, by reviewing their decision-making processes, and by establishing a culture of constructive debate.

The first half of the article examines the propensity to optimism vs. perceptions of loss aversion and argue that portfolio management is a better way to evaluate the risk as lossess can be compensated by other success. I believe though that British management and particularly public sector management is very risk adverse; there is a higher fear of getting things wrong than getting things right although how we end up with Universal Credit, the Boris “vanity lard bus”, his water cannons and his other “erections”, I don’t know.

What made me remember the article was it’s listing of what they call tools to isolate any human bias to me most importantly

Another technique is to request that managers show more of their cards: some companies, for instance, demand that investment recommendations include alternatives, or “next-best” ideas.

I wonder how many of these lessons need to be applied to local authority planning decisions.  Check below/overleaf for more …

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Long Memories

I have observed previously that the political centre of gravity in the European ex-dictatorships of both left and right is defined by the opposition to those dictatorships. So in Iberia there is a strong left and eastern Europe, a very weak one. Why I had not realised until last night that this antipathy applies to the Unions for those people who grew up in Eastern Europe, even it would seem by ,many Poles where the Communist regime was broken by a Trade Union. …

Rescind

Labour’s rules for Party Unit’s have a three month moratorium on “rescinding” a decision.

Using Google, I find this definition

rescind /rɪˈsɪnd/ verb
revoke, cancel, or repeal (a law, order, or agreement).

This would mean to me that changed circumstances and the review of a position that was not carried or made, would be permitted. …  …