The table in this article lists the EP constituencies and the first seat quota, and when looking at the ComRes opinion poll LAB 33%; CON 18%; BRX 17%; CHUK 9%; LD 9%; UKIP 5%; Green 5%; SNP 4%; Other 1%, it is implied that only Labour, the Tories and the Brexit Party would win any seats, in England

Votes are generally geographically concentrated, so the SNP’s 4% of national polls, translates into a much bigger number in Scotland. In 2014, they won two (out of six) seats with just under 30% of the vote.

The south east region has 10 seats and the lowest quota. It also has very strong pockets of Remain votes in both the Brighton and Oxford but also along the railway lines in Surrey & Hampshire. It’s 1st seat quota is the lowest and it elected four UKIP MEPS in 2014. (I should look up how many voters there are in each region but we are working in percentages today.) It elected one Green, one Lib Dem and one Labour MEP and three Tories, one of whom has defected to Change UK, the party once known as the Tinge.  They may keep their seat here as Tory Remainers may find the LibDems and Greens a step too far. I wonder if Labour can pick another one up but otherwise across the country i.e. England, if ComRes are right, everyone except Labour, Tories and the Brexit Party is going to struggle.

The constituencies vary in size from three to ten seats; the single ten seat constituency is the most proportionately sensitive.

The last seat in each election is also interesting as it is evaluated on those votes left; parties with seat already declared have “exhausted” their votes but there are no transfers. In seats like London, it was a choice between the Greens and the Lib Dems as Labour, Turies and UKIP has exhausted their votes and their final seat quota’s were lower than the other two parties first round quotas.

First thoughts
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