On economic migrancy

On economic migrancy

The dirty secret that makes a non-racist immigration policy difficult is that economic migrancy is demand led. Post Brexit, we are short of farm workers, lorry drivers, hospitality workers, and health workers because they’ve gone home and aren’t allowed back in or don’t want to come because of the xenophobia. All of this is causing food shortages, price increases and reduced and delayed health delivery.

On the whole immigrants are younger and of working age; as our population ages we need more people of working age, to produce stuff, deliver services and pay for the pensions of our old and education of our children. The quid pro-quo must be that we offer them citizenship and treat them as neighbours, not to harass them using the hostile environment laws.

A further problem is that the work not being done reduces the tax income of the treasury.

Migrants and young workers pay old people’s pensions.

I salute those who made the single market and freedom of movement the centre of their opposition to Brexit; the facts on the ground today show them to be right, and this is before we consider those Brits in Europe who’ll have to give up their homes and jobs, and those people who travel to Europe for work, such as musicians and actors and others, it’s not just building workers anymore.

If it’s in our interests to welcome migrants, then there’s only one reason for behaving as our government is!

ooOOOoo

The ageing of the global north, and its funding sustainability was observed and publicised by the IMF in the paper,  “Immigrant Swan Song”. For more, from me see tag:immigration

I was thinking of linking to a video clip from “Auf Wiedersehen, Pet”, but the quality on youtube is not good and it’s probably not as funny or insightful as I remember. …

Without Track & Trace, it’s just herd immunity

Without Track & Trace, it’s just herd immunity

Today should have been either Freedom Day or a more mundane, lifting of all lockdown restrictions. It isn’t. It’s been postponed by four weeks. I remain uncomfortable about the Govt’s (and Labour’s) approach and its sole reliance on vaccines. I came across a tweet today from Deepti Gurdasani , who has taken up the issue of pandemic response and, in my mind, talks about the fact that the Govt. are still pursuing a herd immunity strategy and the the failure and loss of trust in track and trace is a critical weakness in the UK response. She also pointed me at the serious escalating evidence of the crippling damage of “long covid”. and at the John Snow Memo.

It seems to be about 1 year old, and says, among other things,

In the absence of adequate provisions to manage the pandemic and its societal impacts, these countries have faced continuing restrictions. This has understandably led to widespread demoralisation and diminishing trust. …

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. … Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. …

Effective measures that suppress and control transmission need to be implemented widely, and they must be supported by financial and social programmes that encourage community responses and address the inequities that have been amplified by the pandemic.

The John Snow Memo

We, i.e. the UK, need an effective and trusted track and trace, which we don’t have, thanks to Hancock and Harding. Without it, we are just using sticking plaster to mend a broken leg! …

About Chesham & Amersham

The Chesham and Amersham by-election. What’s the headline? Tory vote collapses, or Labour loses deposit. A bit of good news and bad news. I doubt that Labour’s leadership will be think that doing better than they did in the Richmond Park by-election is a winning line, nor that we weren’t really trying.

This may be a dramatic reinforcement of what was hinted at on May 6th, that traditional Tory voters in the South of the country are sick of Johnson’s UKIP retread party. It’s a shame that they didn’t wake up in time to save Dominic Greive’s seat and the 150,000 dead from CVB19; it’s not a national trend as Ben Houchon’s strong mandate in Teeside shows. Houchan’s victory also undermines the argument that the red wall is collapsing because Labour are the establishment as do the victories in Preston and Manchester.

Chesham & Amerhsam was a remain seat, 55% – 45%.

Here’s a chart, showing among other things, Labour’s 2017 vote and its historic second place.

There have been some famous by-election upsets in the past, although few with a lasting impact. I wonder if this is any different today. The politics is, and voter loyalty is much weaker than it was fifty years ago.  …

Crisis in the hospitality business

Crisis in the hospitality business

While it seems people are desperate to get back to the pub, the staff don’t seem so keen. Across the country, pubs and restaurants are having difficulty in recruiting staff. Here’s the BBC, here’s the FT and again, here’s the Manchester Evening News. Even Tim Martin, the arch Brexiteer Weatherspoons boss is complaining. This is another lesson to us about how our economy is out of kilter, essential work is not well paid!

While much of the reporting suggests a desire for a better life work balance, I wonder how much Brexit and the end of Freedom of Movement has to do with this.  …

Free Palestine

There was a demonstration in London over the weekend in solidarity with Palestine and Palestinians. Eye witnesses tell me it was very large, some report it as 100,000. This is as a result of the resuming war in the Middle East, the siege of Gaza, continued oppression of the West Bank Palestinians and also of their ecumenical and secular supporters within Israel. I wasn’t there, perhaps I should have been.

António Guterres spoke to the security council last week, this reported by the UN whose press release includes the following,

… the past week has seen the deadliest escalation between Israeli military forces and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza in seven years, as well as dramatic scenes of violence across the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. In the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood, there have been protests and clashes over the threat of Palestinian evictions by settler organizations. Meanwhile, in the Old City, including in the Holy Esplanade, violent clashes have unfolded between Palestinians and Israeli civilians and police. Police deployed a heavy presence in the area in the context of large numbers of visitors for Ramadan prayers, protests and Israeli extremist demonstrations, leading to clashes.

Tor Wennesland,UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process
 …

On May 6th, election day 2021

On May 6th, election day 2021

If the strategy was to recover the old mill, coal and steel towns, it would seem this hasn’t worked. But there was a 3% swing to Labour on Thursday albeit in Blair’s middle England, not where Starmer and his strategists would have hoped. If the road to No 10, is through the old mill, coal and steel towns, Labour will have to do something else.

Corbyn’s leadership was made by a spontaneous movement, it was not a plot by 60 year old Bennite retreads. The eruption requires to be understood which Starmer’s people seem incapable of; the communications and strategy are poor, and Mandelson too engrained in 25 year old fights that makes Labour members and voters the enemy.

I am glad I waited to talk about this as it’s a story that unrolled over three days. Thursday night was dominated by Labour’s loss of Hartlepool and Durham County Council and rumours of an upset in London as the Tory GLA seats were declared and Labour held Harrow & Brent underperformed in delivering votes to Sadiq Kahn.

Over Friday, the picture became clearer, there was a great victory in Wales, we took the West of England and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor positions and held councils such as Preston, although we lost the West Midlands Metropolitan Mayor (again). There were some great victories in Oxfordshire and one notable defeat in Oxford City. Labour won the elections in Liverpool and in the evening, it became clear that Sadiq Kahn would win in London, with the result being declared just before midnight. Phil Burton Cartledge comments, possibly too early, in this article on the lessons to be learned on strategy , where he concludes,

What are the chances of this being a teachable moment for Labour? With the likes of Steve Reed and Peter Mandelson blaming “the party” as opposed to the leader or the strategy, the odds aren’t looking good. Six years on from Labour’s evisceration in Scotland, no analysis has been ventured by them, no lessons learned. 2017’s uptick in Labour’s fortunes – an election that must be buried at all costs, nothing to be seen here. And 2019: an awful result to be sure, but no consideration of how the party still clung on to over 10 million votes. Only a trend as stupid, factional and myopic as Labour’s right could look at their organisation’s recent electoral performances and conclude there is nothing useful there to learn about. These people are simply not serious.

Phil BC

He then wrote an article on Starmer’s poor reaction, entitled “On Keir Starmer’s Stupidity” about firstly claiming to take responsibility and then attempting and failing to fire Angela Rayner as “Party Chair” and finishing by giving her even more titles, and more responsibility. He also damagingly changed the story and buried Friday’s better news.   

However, on Sunday, Labour, in Bristol, despite or maybe because of, holding the Mayor, Labour lost control of the council to a Green surge.

I’d love to be able to argue that we did badly where candidates were imposed but it’s not compelling. There are well known stories about the Hartelpool which was lost and Liverpool selections which was held, and less well know stories about the West of England Mayor selection which Labour won. The West Midlands Mayoral selection was also unsatisfactory where an ex-Birmingahm MP was unable to turn out Labour’s Brummie vote. Both Liverpool and Bristol campaigns will have been disrupted by Evans’ suspensions. The disruption to Bristol’s campaigning will have been exacerbated by the managed selection process, one result of which is reported in the Bristol Post and where local commentators tell me the imposed candidates lost. The Bristol result seems to have been partly because of a loss of the youth and student vote; this will not have been helped by Starmer’s antipathy to the drowning of the Colston statue as part of Black Lives Matter protests and his comments on its policing. But is also a symptom of Starmer’s deliberate destruction of Corbyn’s coalition.

At the centre of the lessons to be learned is how to put together a coalition that can win. This is a question beyond that of geography. Phil’s writings are full of analysis about the changing nature of work, the aging and the political criticality of outright home ownership, the alienation of final salary pension recipients from the youth and even their children and the historic loyalty of Britain’s black and asian communities and these issues’ impact on British politics. He also argues that age is the primary bifurcation of politics today as Thatcher’s voters fulfil their homeowning dream and either look to survive and/or pull the ladder up behind them. He also argues that capital needs social liberalism as immaterial work becomes dominant in our economy. His arguments are probably most easily accessible in his article, “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” .

We need to recognise the failure of policy promises, although it would be nice to have had some, to overcome authenticity, values and stories and that policy must be socialised amongst the electorate. One way that Labour does that is to debate policy on conference and in its CLPs so supressing the policy debate and declaring a Day 0 for policy are equally not helpful given his 10 pledges and the promises

There’s some great stuff Paul Mason, who tweets on strategy and ignorance (of Labour’s legacy leadership) ,  and Clive Lewis, on Centrism and triangulation. Labour needs to do more than wait for its turn and there’s more from Phil BC on immaterial labour i.e. the factor of production and its impact on representational politics and on Pasokisation. “On Hartelpool” by James Butler, covers many of these themes too.

Scylla & Charybdis

The meaning of class is changing and the way to do progressive politics is too.

Bristol is the Scylla, while Hartlepool is Charybdis. Labour should have learned that voters always have somewhere else to go and as Labour reinvents triangulation and trims towards the Tories, we lose the young and liberal supporters; people that vote for us and actually work. …

On New Cross’s by-election

Labour’s Samantha Latouche has won the New Cross by-election and won it well. Congratulations, now let’s look at the numbers.

Here’s a table showing the top vote for each party in 2018, when the council last had a general election. I have used the top vote of each party (of those that stood). This may cause some inconsistencies as in 2018 people might have voted both for the one green candidate and the top Labour candidate but this is the best I can do. My data source is Lewisham Council’s site. The 2021 by-election results.

NX Ward Elections 2018 -2021

I experiments with several chart types and came up with this. The solid bars represent the current vote, so if above the hatched bars, this shows a gain, and if below it represents a fall in voter share. The turnout was better than in 2018, wonder why that was and we should note that the Tory vote increased, while the Green vote decreased.

NX Ward Elections 2018 -2021

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