I have been published on Labour Hub. In the article, I reflect on the powerlessness of Labour’s ordinary members, and look at the long term plans of Labour’s right and PLP starting from Evan’s 1999 report proposing the destruction of membership rights and diminishing of the CLP influence. I look at the introduction of all-member meetings and registered supporters and their later repeal together with the reforms enhancing conference power and their repeal. I also look at Labour's failure to use IT platforms for policy, and underinvestment in supporting staff posts. See overleaf or check out the original article... ...
It’s not about law and order
I feel I need to write something on the far-right riots. Firstly let me express my solidarity with the families of the dead girls in Southport and now those people who have lost their livelihoods and or suffered injury in the rioting. But this is moving so fast that it’s impossible to keep up. …
The next general election
This article looks at two references about to how to win an election in the UK. The first is a you tube film from the FT which focuses on which way forward for the Tory party. The second is an article, obviously seeded by Labour Together on Labour's preparations for 2029. In this article overleaf, I précis the articles and comment, in particular about Labour's challenges. ...
Labour and the Cuts (again)
Two comments on the Reeves announcement to cut albeit fake investment projects and the pensioner’s winter fuel allowance. On the fuel allowance payment, this is not means testing the entitlement, it will be linked to Pension Credit entitlement, the threshold for which which is slightly less than the state pension paid to someone with full contributions record. It also ignores the fact that additional income is taxed. This entitlement limit is £11,500, about half, under the national living wage, and the amount required to sponsor an immigrant is £29,000. I quote these figures to show how necessary and low the contribution-based pension is. This is mean and unnecessary.
On the macro-economics, the “golden rules” were designed to protect investment against short-term debt management fetishism. Until now no-one has ever argued that you shouldn’t borrow to invest, and while I usually argue that investment in human capital is a legitimate use of the state’s borrowing capability, which some consider to be a stretch, that can be no doubt the roads and railway lines warrant being borrowed for.
Jeremy Hunt and Owen Jones both accused Reeves of implementing cuts that she had always planned to do. If the labour front-bench did not know that the last Tory budget was fake, then they should have done. I’m also taken with the Twitter correspondents here and a thread here who point out that it is not just modern monetarists who state that the constraint on the capacity of the economy is its inputs and neither the money supply or the borrowing capacity. …
More immigration raids? Really?
So Labour’s 2nd immigration policy is, it seems to increase raids; not to establish safe routes for asylum seekers, not to recruit more staff to process the asylum claims backlog, not to repeal the litany of the Tories’ appalling laws, not to vacate the Bibby Stockholm & not to abolish the hostile environment. 😭 How does this help “smash the gangs”? One other thing to note, is that people don’t like immigration raids, it’s been very difficult to do them in Glasgow and South London.
Labour’s rhetoric has been and now its policy is about triangulating with and encouraging the racists in Reform and the Tory Party. We shouldn’t be doing this, it’s morally wrong and there are more important jobs to do within the Home Office. …
The fate of prime ministers and governments
I have been making a chart tracking the fate of governments and prime ministers. I last published on the defenestration of Liz Truss and the assumption of Rishi Sunak. We have a new government and so I have updated the chart which is available below/overleaf. …
What next for Labour
My thoughts on the election of a Labour Government, the good, the bad and the not so good. I criticise the debt fetishism of the Government, together with its policy position on immigration and the EU. I also publish my statement for the Labour Party's National Policy forum. For more, use the "Read More" button ...
Labour landslide
While as argued elsewhere, the story of the night is that the election result is a tremendous victory for Labour, but on examination the voting coalition is small and potentially fractious. Those who fear a timid one-term Labour government to be replaced by an ethno-nationalist majority, either led by Reform or consisting of a populist rump of the Tory party in coalition with Reform may be justified. For more, use the "Read More" button ...
And in France
The French election results do not look pretty. There is a second round but the Le Pen’s National Rally have gain 33% of the voters share.
Macron’s strategy, “apres Moi la deluge” is entering its endgame. Macron’s project was always based on presenting himself as the only bulwark against France’s far-right yet holding the threat of “La France Insoumise” as somehow equally unacceptable. It has always been both an anti-left and a personal vanity project.
Michael Chessum in this article, powerfully argues that right wing populism, fundamentally based upon racism and the dehumanisation of others has been allowed to breed by the neoliberal policies of austerity, the natural consequence of which is the cost of living crisis. The centre’s desire to triangulate is a fatal and dangerous approach. The far-right’s racism must be opposed, and it seems that the British and European left is not up to the task; in the UK for instance Labour’s decision to pull its campaign in Clacton vs Farage and the comments on immigration and returning illegal entrants to Bangladesh underline “changed” Labour’s continued pandering to the racist right.
The Spectator argues that a Le Pen government in alliance with the populist right in Europe, particularly Italy, may well be part of an end game for the EU and Von der Leyen is not the leader to stop this. The Spectator article also suggest that a change of government in France will also make life difficult on defence and trade for what we assume is an incoming Labour government.
Image Credit: NA Paris from flickr CC 2009 elliotbrown BY, w750 cropped …
What the polls are saying!
Some clever person or several has made a page categorising and displaying the results of the various MRPs that have been undertaken. They have posted their results here. I made a chart allowing a comparison of the various forecasts, it makes astonishing reading. The original post allows each British seat to be examined.
Everyone thinks there will be a large Labour Majority, only Electoral Calculus thinks Corbyn will win in Islington North and they i.e. electoral calculus have some other interesting outlier results, inc. that the Libdems beating the Tories. The Reform predictions vary from 19 seats to none and the Greens from four to none.
Labour’s majority is forecast to vary between 382 seats to 214 seats.
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