The Lib Dems came a pretty poor second in South West Surrey in 2010, the County Council elected in 2013 is pretty solidly Tory, but the Tories did not win the Surrey Police Commissioner elections. The county includes Hunt’s constituency and the ward results are available. The Police Commissioner and a number of County Councillors are independents, which usually means expelled or secret Tories; there are also UKIP county councilors but none of the non-Tory County Councillors were elected from wards in Hunt’s seat as far as I can tell from a cursory inspection.

 Jermey Hunt w500

In 1997, the Tories got under 50% of the vote, still wining the seat; the Referendum Party got 5.0% and we can expect UKIP to scoop those up, but it’s hard to see which party can provide a candidate to beat him, unless he gives an anti-corruption candidate, like Martin Bell who did for Neil Hamilton an excuse or the National Health Action Party decide to stand (and both require may require Libdem support), I can’t see him loosing.



On Hunt’s chances of remaining an MP in 2015
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