Two political forecast models; a Labour landslide

If you check, You Gov’s midweek poll for last week, you will find they forecast, as follows. CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%; the field work was done between the 21st and 23rd May. If you then go to the BBC’s House of Commons Seat Calculator, and set the dial as You Gov suggest, you get the following result.


cropped screen shot of the BBC's seat calculator

A Labour Majority of 142, with the seats as follows, CON 190, LAB 396, LD 35 and the Rest at 29. This is on a scale of Tony Blair’s 1997 Victory.

ooOOOoo

There are a number of problems with this model, it is based on 2005 results, and there have been boundary changes since, it assumes an even swing which probably discriminates against the Lib Dems who claim a positive incumbency factor, and it almost certainly underestimates the Scottish Nationalists. It’s a shame that there is no ‘hover’ over the seats to see which seat is which.

Other potential long or medium term factors i.e. the increasing xenophobia and the rise of UKIP are likely to be under-estimated or ignored. The YouGov report does count and report on the UKIP and SNP voting intentions.

I have placed the you gov news page and the BBC page together with Political Betting’s home page on my Blogroll.

This is already out of date, YouGov published a further poll with field work conducted over the 23rd and 24th May in last weekend’s Sunday Times, with the Tories having stolen 1% from the Liberal Democrats. …

The privatisation of snooping

The BBC reports that a court has ruled that “Blanket” use of the Criminal Records Bureau (CRB) may not be compatible with Human Rights Act, and thus with human rights. The CRB was set up to create a single point at which those organisations with a child care duty such as schools, can check the criminal records of those they employ or permit to volunteer. This court case looks at the circumstances of an individual who committed acts when he was 11 that put him on the register. Unlike Denmark, as exposed in Borgen last week, the UK age of criminal responsibility is 10. Hard cases make poor law.

The article does not explore the growing ‘requirement’ by professional services employers without a child care duty to ask for both ask for both CRB reports and to ask for permission to pass these reports on to potential customers. More proof that if you create the database, it will be both hacked and judicially extended. …

Was this the new Black Wednesday?

What a week for economic and political news! Unemployment down, National Income (GDP) Down, IMF & Goldman Sachs say Austerity isn’t working, Clegg and Boris agree and argue for increased capital expenditure (Houses and Transport projects). Is it the turning point in this government’s fortunes? It’s clear Plan A isn’t working and Larry Elliott in the Guardian says it better than I can.

Dave Cameron’s response to this is to say that the Tory party will offer an in/out referendum on Europe in the next Parliament, if he wins a majority. Not sure you’re on the right page. It’s still the economy, stupid! …

How important is postal voting becoming?

How important is postal voting becoming?

Late last year, I read Banana Republic UK, which I reviewed here…. We should all be familiar with the dire turnout in the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) elections, and a comment by Joanna Baxter made me consider what proportion of the PCC elections were cast by postal ballot. Since the postal vote is the most vulnerable part of our voting system, as it becomes more pervasive, the vulnerabilities become more important; the election becomes less safe. …

HMV, a tale of hubris, tax and monopoly

HMV, the UK’s leading bricks & mortar creative industries retailer has gone into administration. Lets hope that its winding up is not as brutal as at Jessops which also failed last week. The FT reports in an article, published yesterday, entitled, HMV calls in the Administrators that the rug was pulled when their suppliers of the music, films and computer/console games refused to extend credit terms to allow them to refinance their debt. …

Short & Sweet…

In the Independent, in an article headlined, “Voters ‘brainwashed by Tory welfare myths’, shows new poll”, Frances O’Grady, the TUC General Secretary, said,

“It is not surprising that voters want to get tough on welfare. They think the system is much more generous than it is in reality, is riddled with fraud and is heavily skewed towards helping the unemployed, who they think are far more likely to stay on the dole than is actually the case. Indeed if what the average voter thinks was true, I’d want tough action too.

“But you should not conduct policy, particularly when it hits some of the most vulnerable people in society, on the basis of prejudice and ignorance. And it is plainly immoral to spread such prejudice purely for party gain, as ministers and their advisers are doing, by deliberately misleading people about the value of benefits and who gets them.”

The article looks at what people think the cases is in terms of benefit levels and what actually happens…

All this on the day Child Benefit for higher rate tax paying families is stopped. A note for Londoner’s…the higher rate tax starts at £42,835, this is beneath the London average wage of £48,000. Not true….the claw back starts at £50,000. …

What’s my vote worth?

How easy would it be to steal an election in the UK? Over the break, I read “Banana Republic UK?” by Sam Buckley. In it, he argues that that it’s too easy to rig and steal elections in the UK, and that this has been compounded by the then Labour Government’s decision in 2000 to allow postal votes on demand as an attempt to increase voter participation. He reviews process of legal review of elections, illustrates the difficulty and cost of starting and winning such a review. He then looks firstly at the specific review of two wards in Birmingham in 2004, which led to the elections being voided and a number of individuals being disqualified from standing for public office because they had corrupted the postal votes. Those disqualified were members of the Labour Party; Buckley balances this by exploring a review of elections in Slough where supporters of the Conservative candidate were convicted of rigging the election by placing non eligible voters on the electoral roll. The constraints on who can request an election court, the burden of proof and the time limits make it hard for the Police to participate in ensuring that vote rigging doesn’t occur. They can prosecute wrong doers, but cannot void the election. …

Mrs Windsor goes to Downing Street.

The Queen attended the Cabinet earlier this week. Basically this as an attempt by this tarnished and cruel Tory-led government to acquire some of the Queen’s current popularity. You’d think they’ve learned since the Jubilee and Olympics failed to help them. Actually, it’s a disgrace and a demonstration of a massive ignorance of the history of democracy in this country. One can only assume that this Government doesn’t care. …

What does Obama’s victory mean for us?

Obama wins re-election as President of the USA against the combined might of Wall Street and Occupy’s 1%. Congratulations!

Several UK commentators have expressed the view that it’s good news for Cameron because an incumbent won re-election despite the fact that the economy was in an appalling state. See [James Forsyth in the Spectator]. Most surprisingly Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph, who offers Cameron six other lessons. What they miss, as expressed on Conservative Home of all places, albeit in the comments is that the Tories have deliberately wrecked Labour’s recovering economy; Obama managed to get a stimulus package through and as his VP and running mate, Joe Biden said, “GM is still alive”. The Tories and Democrats are also travelling in different directions on Healthcare provision. The most important difference though is when Obama says “We’re all in this together”, he’s believed, when Cameron or Osborne say it, they’re not…partly because as in Romney’s case, they have some very unpleasant and greedy friends. …