This article looks at two references about to how to win an election in the UK. The first is a you tube film from the FT which focuses on which way forward for the Tory party. The second is an article, obviously seeded by Labour Together on Labour’s preparations for 2029. In this article below, I précis the articles and comment, in particular about Labour’s challenges.
The FT film identifies several long term trends in the electorate, one of which is the increasing number of graduates, who are socially more liberal, another is the increasing volatility of voters. The latter suggests that the Tories can recover if they get their strategy right, after all, it is suggested that a 7% swing is all it would take from Labour to Tory, a swing which labour exceeded from 2019 to 2024. They also note that one of the critical issues leading to Tories switching in the blue wall was corruption, and another was competence.
Personally, I think they miss long term trends in the economy although one of those is clearly the increasing number of graduates and the other causes of the ‘generational’ elections are harder to summarise in trite phrases, although access to housing, and the financialisation of housing is obviously important.. Thatcher was elected in 1979 as the golden age of social democracy ended. Blair was elected to repair the public realm and end the seedy corruption and hypocrisy which had engulfed the Tories.
However, the speakers in the video are fascinating in their identification of the challenges facing both Labour and the Tories in building a winning voter coalition in 2029. They are deeply unconvinced that moving to the right will work for the Tories; there are too few voters in that space, and doing so will repel their traditional base. For Labour the risk is further loss of social liberals, youth and BAME voters.
Another comment on volatility comes from Labour sources. This article from the Guardian, obviously sourced by Labour Together, seems to suggest they plan to rebuild the coalition. I can’t see how. Having spent four years telling its left and BAME activists that they don’t count, without policy and organisational reform that speaks to these constituencies they will find it extraordinary difficult. With the seeds of allegations of corruption and the whole argument that the country is walking away from the right’s racism means that despite their best efforts they will find it hard to appeal to Reform UK voters. Reform’s voters had their chance to vote Labour this time and didn’t. We can see from much of the first two weeks, that this government is unlikely to behave in a way that will allow it to move to the left.
One of my problems is that while the electorate is less tribal than it once was, I am concerned that manifestos and policy promises are not effective as a means of winning votes. Three word, (or one word) slogans are not a policy promise or a contract.