First they came …

 

First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a communist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the sick, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not sick.

Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Pastor Martin Niemoller

This is based on speeches made by the anti-nazi German priest Martin Niemöller and sourced from Wikipedia; most versions of the poem seem not to include the sick, the so-called incurables, but I wanted a longer version and think its more relevant to the UK today. …

Five steps to Compliance

As we entered the ground rush zone for the GDPR a number of organisations issued numbered guidance documents in preparation. I joined in and published a blog article on my linkedin blog called “Beyond Adequate Protection”. This had my five point list of tasks to be GDPR compliant. I summarise them here,

  1. Know and document your personal data catalogue and its lawful purpose
  2. Create an identity solution for your data subjects, so subject access requests can be fulfilled
  3. Build a record keeping solution
  4. Ensure that your incident management solutions are compliant
  5. Implement changes to the software development Life Cycle(SDLC) to include privacy impact assessments

The original article deals with these in a bit more detail but I finish by saying that it’s only this easy if your organisation already meets the need to provide adequate technical and organisational protection.

 …

Maths, Economics and Mark Blaug

I just read Modern Economics is Sick, on the Real World Economics Blog which uses a quote from Mark Blaug to substantiate its thesis,

“Mainstream economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world. The main reason for this irrelevance is the failure of economists to match their deductive-axiomatic methods with their subject.”

Mark Blaug (1927-2011) did more than any other single person to establish the philosophy and methodology of economics a respected subfield within economics. His path-breaking The methodology of economics (1980) is still a landmark (and the first textbook on economic methodology yours truly ever read)

One day, I’ll have look at it. …

On protecting air quality

On protecting air quality

Do Lewisham Council have a view based on science about the impact of green space, or the change in the amount of green space on air quality. ( I am advised that the quality of the planting may/will also impact this calculation, as of course would distance from the green space.)

It would seem useful to knowand I can’t find anything useful that goes beyond sq. m. …

Managing Compliance Software

Managing Compliance Software

I have just published on my linkedin blog a little essay on managing software used for the purpose of compliance. One key insight which one might consider is that these programs are being used because you have to not because you want to. Also society does not want businesses innovating the compliance software, we need to know it does what society requires not what the business wants. This makes the governing super strategy for these applications one of “operational efficiency”, or in Dan Remenyi’s model, a “support” system. For compliance systems it is advantageous to buy or adopt a package and to adopt the package’s optimum process; society has confidence that companies are complying with the law, and the companies share the maintenance costs and get a superior product and support. In some cases, the requirement that society has confidence that compliance is correct leads to the regulators giving companies the software or running it themselves.  …

Dallio on Economics

I am tidying the flat of items I have kept for too long, and came across an unread copy of Ray Dallio’s “How the Economic Machine Works”. I had been pointed at it by a then work colleague who had asked me to comment.

I didn’t feel in the mood to read it, and know I don’t want to keep it and so I googled it to create a bookmark but came across this 30 minute video, which can of course be consumed at double speed.

Dallio constructs a macro-economic model based on productivity growth, and credit cycles.

I have problems with his ignoring of the impact of monopoly on prices which given his rigid adherence to demand pull inflation theories could be a problem because he requires that over pricing leads to a dropin demand which doesn’t necessarily occur in monopolistic markets. He treats savings as a purchase of assets i.e. as spending; I am not sure that’s right.

He makes no mention of the marginal propensity to spend/save i.e. ignores the fact that the poor spend more of any incremental income than the rich. There is a limited discussion of fiscal policy.

He argies that the real economy i.e. the economy in terms of goods and services ignoring prices, grows at the rate of macro productivity growth.

There is no mention of international trade in his model.

I am unclear what causes the turn round in his long term debt cycle i.e. why does it change from benign to catastrophe. (Is it just animal spirits reacting to inflation and/or the micro debt burden? Or maybe its banks getting cold feet about the creditworthiness of thier borrowers.)

He argues that when the long term credit cycle moves to bust there are only four things that policy makers can do in order to reduce the total debt burden, restore creditworthiness and start spending again,

  • Cut spending (Austerity)
  • Reduce debt (Defaults & Restructuring)
  • Redistribute wealth (from the wealthy)
  • and print money

He argues that the first three are deflationary i.e. will reinforce the recession but the final one does not. (I can’t see how taking money from the rich and giving it to the poor is deflationary because of the short term higher propensity to spend of those with lower incomes.) He argues that these policies need to be balanced and that changes in income/product must be greater than the change in the debt burden. This reminds me that he does not seem to discriminate between domestic and government debt.

He finishes with three personal lessons, the last of which I heartily agree,  don’t borrow too much, don’t charge too much, and keep yourself up to date i.e. improve your productivity. …