Munich 2025, peace in our time

Munich 2025, peace in our time

The last week has signified the death knell of NATO. The ninety minute phone call between Trump and Putin signifies the road to a 21st century Hitler Stalin pact. The Trump administration’s proposals that the USA and Russia make peace in Ukraine without Ukraine being present at the table and mandating European NATO to provide peacekeeping forces are a return great power politics unrestrained by the rule of law.

Left wing fools who consider Putin’s Russia to be the successor of the socialist Soviet Union must be very happy.

This attack on the EU was reinforced by the Vice President, J D Vance’s speech to the Munich security conference, where he criticised the EU and member state governments for suppressing free speech, failing to halt illegal migration and running in fear from voters’ true beliefs. He refused to meet the German Chancellor and yet met with the leader of the AfD. We all know his arguments on free speech are partisan; they want American rich people’s voices to be heard and amplified by privately owned social media companies and fear Europe’s regulation of them based on a demand for truth. We also note the hypocrisy of the US free speech advocates attacks on ideas, books and teachers in schools, universities and libraries in the US. His comments on not relying on foreign technology providers by which he meant China, may come to haunt him as Europe examines its supply chains on the basis of national security grounds.  

Trump’s call for European NATO to increase their defence budgets to 5% of GDP is a naked attempt to build budgets for the US arms industry, just as the UK’s requests to have a side treaty on defence and security with the EU is also at least partially based on the economic interests of BAe.

Trump’s arguments about what does his money i.e. the arms shipments to Ukraine, buy, has a moral vacancy but it is clear that the view that “the business of America is business” has returned to the White House. The crudity with which Trump pursues his views of US fiscal and commercial interests is echoed by the UK Labour Government in positioning its ‘EU reset’;  arguing for changes in the agreements which only benefits Britian from their limited, primarily electoral, point of view. 

European NATO needs to respond. The peoples of Europe need to have a think about the quality of its leadership.

NATO needs to audit its supply chain, evaluate its security of supply, and get off any Musk owned technology.

Also, European NATO needs to ensure that its military is not using any technology controlled by the USA. Most weapons have software, many companies including Tesla controlled by Elon Musk use software to control use of product, see Corey Doctorow on the use of DMCA. Permission can be withheld, particularly through software.

The EU needs to reaffirm its commitment to not sharing civilian intelligence with countries not bound by human rights law.

As part of guaranteeing military security of supply, the UK needs to join the European Space Agency.  The UK needs to get off the F35, and Poland should think of getting off theirs too.

It is common currency that the UK Army is too small and thus the UK needs to increase the size of its army. It’s less common currency that its Navy is too large, particularly if we withdraw again  from east of Suez. …

Accountable to whom?

Accountable to whom?

In the USA, checks and balances are written into the US constitution and are designed to ensure the power is shared and controlled by the rule of law. One weakness in the constitution and the founders’ desire to control power is the development of the executive presidency and the growth in size of the United States. In order to win a presidential election one needs to put together a very large coalition, and when one takes into account that there is only one president, and the winner takes all nature of American politics, the checks and balances seem more translucent than expected as illustrated by the behaviour of the Trump presidency.

This tendency to monarchy is aggravated by the informal fashion in which the law and constitution regulates political parties within the United States and incidently the UK. A party cannot and will not hold a president of its own party to account and when one looks at the degradation of the Republican Party In Congress and the capture of the Supreme Court it becomes clear that US style constitutions cannot hold a rogue president to account.

Fixed terms are equally a problem, the electorate cannot change its mind. Political theory suggests that a parliamentary system solves this problem, but it would seem only if proportional voting systems are used. Proportional voting systems ameliorate the need for voters to participate within coalitions that they’re uncomfortable in and so don’t have to compromise as to how to cast their vote for a government,.

The Anglosphere’s problem is first past the post with a winner take all culture of government. This is replicated in most if not all Presidential republics.

If a major part of the problem is party capture, then it is clear the UK suffers from this as well, shown by Boris Johnson’s purge of the pro European wing of his parliamentary party, and by Starmer and Mcsweeney’s purge and intimidation of their internal enemies and opponents. I note that the Labour Government is going to make more Mayors, creating more power foci which can only be occupied by one person.

As voters, citizens, residents and party members, perhaps we should be asking for democratic guarantees, including term limits, by political parties within their candidate selection process and that they should be accountable to the public as well as to the party membership. …

Win/Lose vs Win/Win & Trump

Win/Lose vs Win/Win & Trump

I was pointed at this,and was advised, that, “Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece…”.

The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the President, by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University – Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn’t another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM – HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

From https://www.facebook.com/geoffrey.m.arnold/posts/10160302885212273, also at threads https://www.threads.net/@beingliberal/post/DFhUZedxEIT?hl=en

Not having studied negotiation, I can see that this ignorance is being applied to the original Brexit negotiations and to Starmer’s attempts to “reset” the election.  …

An AI prosecutor?

An AI prosecutor?

I wrote a Linkedin an article called an AI prosecutor. In it I say,

The problem with modern software is much of it is inference, and completely unsuitable for “beyond reasonable doubt”. It’s also opaque and likely to fail the tests around if it returns popular vs accurate and authoritative results. It’s often wrong and arguably a bullshitter. The EU’s GDPR introduced the right to freedom from profiling, which means a freedom from being processed automatically by computers. This is an important barrier.

This is my first written declaration that that the GDPR’s “freedom from profiling” is a crucial defence of humanity against the machines.

My alarm about the consultation was probably unnecessary.  …

Regulating Social Media

Regulating Social Media

Steve Bannon boasts that the incoming Trump administration has tamed the social media sites. The ex-prisoner uses typically intemperate language and remains an important instigator of far-right virtual organisation. Questions remain about the power relationship between Trump and Musk, as we are unsure as to who is in the driving seat, so whether the right Republicans have actually tamed the social media sites is an outstanding question.

Concurrently with this story, the US Supreme Court have refused to block legislation forcing Bytedance to sell it’s US interest in TikTok to a US buyer. The law and many commentators focus on the national security implications of Chinese ownership of such a major social media site. The US government Is particularly concerned that the Chinese government have the ability to direct the affairs of Bytedance’s owner, a Chinese corporation.

Despite the US claiming the strongest free press rights in the world, rights granted in the US constitution belong to its citizens alone and are only enforceable within the United States. The US’s historic regulation of foreign media, much of which remains in place today, includes the licencing of foreign journalists and the statutory requirements the significant media organisations are owned by U.S. citizens.

In fact, U.S. politics confuses the freedom of the press, with the right to platform. U.S. law acknowledges now the rights to freedom of speech is restricted by safety, conspiracy, anti-corruption and defamation laws. Little discourse in the US recognises that the United Nations declaration of human rights criminalises hate speech and that the US legal system has a duty to suppress it.

If the US can claim that the Chinese owned company Bytedance is a threat to national security, then it is clear that other democracies have the right to take similar decisions with respect to the privately owned US social media companies. It is clear the individuals and states have been misusing the social media companies to influence the political governance of the democracies. Some are taking this action already such as Brazil and at a much slower pace the European Union, it’s not as if these states don’t have the laws they need, what’s missing is will.

The oligarchic capture of the US government has never been more obvious. It’s time to organise. …

Hard-a-port to avoid the rocky shore

Hard-a-port to avoid the rocky shore

I wrote a piece of Mike Phipps, Labour Hub, called, Labour in crisis must change direction, published on 30 Dec. It was a comment on the More in Common poll run on behalf of the Times, reporting that if there were an election tomorrow, Labour would lose 200 seats including those of Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting. The Independent reports that they would be joined by Ed Miliband, John Healey and Bridgit Phillipson.

The rest of this blog shows a chart as to how the Commons would look, highlights the false start, identifies real earnings as the true indicator of economic policy success, looks at the example of Germany, and the threat of Reform UK. I conclude, "The big problem Labour faces is it designed its manifesto to win the election, not run the country. It’s still triangulating and refuses to recognise that triangulation reinforces & legitimises the politics of their opponents. This is particularly so on the issue of immigration and racism." Some are suggesting that a change of leader is needed, what’s needed is a change of direction that genuinely puts the country first. It remains, “the economy stupid”, but the economy is real wages/incomes." For more use the Read More button ...

Twenty seven becomes …

Twenty seven becomes …

One step forward, two steps back, or maybe not, for the EU. Iceland votes to consider joining, Turkey asks to revise its agreements to increase links, and demonstrators continue to protest in Georgia about the stolen election and the postponement of EU accession talks, and last month Moldova voted to change its constitution to permit accession talks to begin. Yet in the UK, the pall of stupidity and fear still envelopes the Labour Government. …

The Draghi report on European competitiveness.

The Draghi report on European competitiveness.

I have been trying to get on top of whether the Draghi Report on European economic competitiveness is really a game changer. Without study it seems to be a call for more EU (as opposed to member state debt. I am of the view that within the UK, there needs to be transfer union i.e. that borrowing and wealth from London needs to be shared with other parts of the country.

I found this article from the FT, which is headlined, “Europe can learn fiscal lessons from the UK on how to achieve its goals”, and subtitled, “ A co-ordinated reform agenda is crucial if the EU is serious about becoming a climate leader and geopolitical player”, written by Draghi. On diigo, I highlighted the following lines,

The UK government has chosen to significantly raise public investment over the next five years and has adopted precise rules to ensure that borrowing is used only to fund this investment. … Moreover, in order to ensure the quality of spending, transactions will be validated by independent authorities.

To which I reply, “Of course Draghi would argue for independence. The near cultish following with which his recent comments have been greeted is based on the desire by politicians and capitalists to ensure the macroeconomic policy and regulation is outsourced to non-democratic agencies. Central bankers underestimate the ability of democracies to present a wisdom of crowds, even on investment decisions. An example of this is the EU’s horizon investment valuation process, which ranks proposals and select winners from a competition. The technocrats and democrats, particularly representative politicians also underestimate the value that citizens assemblies may bring to these decisions.

Draghi continues,

“A more efficient use of Europe’s high private savings rates requires integrating its capital markets. To redirect private investment from mature industries to more advanced sectors will hinge on completing the single market. … innovative firms in fast-growing sectors such as digital services will not be able to scale up and attract capital. And, as a result, investment will remain locked in old technologies.”

Is this true? Perez, whose theories I summarise on my blog,  argues that the declining profit of now legacy industries will ensure that investment goes to new innovative industries. Also, like most Draghi is betting on digital services as the driver; Perez’s theories suggest that IT is now reaching its stagnation stage and will be replaced although we maybe in a stage where the political power of legacy capitalism is too powerful to be overcome. This is why corporate lobbying power is so destructive to human progress. …

A note on managing content

A note on managing content

I made a post on LinkedIn called “Managing & distributing content on the cheap”. I look at what I do, i.e. use wordpress and plugins and what I have done and walked away from; I also mention https://postiz.com/ which claims to be an open source multi-channel poster, and was reminded of https://decidim.org/first-steps/, a community development project, for organising communities. Should I take another look at diaspora, or has it passed its sell by date.  …