The Road not Taken

The Road not Taken

I went to an exhibition at the Deutscher Historisches Museum, called the Road not Taken. It examines seven turning points in German history and asks what might have happened if they’d turned out differently.

They say, “It brings actual turning points face to face with what might have happened if it if it were not for various factors – prevented by accidents, averted by misfires or other kinds of shortcomings -are explored: it is what is known in the philosophy of history as contingency. The course of these events begins in 1989 with the peaceful revolution in the German Democratic Republic and ends in the year 1848, when Germany first tried to attempt to democratic awakening. The exhibition takes up such topics as “Ost Politik”, the building of the wall, the Cold War, the “Stalin note”, the assumption of power by the National Socialists as well as revolution and democratisation at decisive points – and illustrates that history, by no means had to end as it actually happened.” 

See below for a video of an agamograph, contrasting the Chinese government’s violent repression of their student led protests, with the outcome of the mainly peaceful demonstrations against the government of the GDR leading to the fall of the wall.  

The GDR had sent an embassy of solidarity to the Chinese government after Tiananmen Square. This is supplemented by exhibits detailing the GDR military code and law prohibiting acting against the citizens of the GDR and others detailing the problem of all civil wars, that the police and army need to arrest or repress their families.

The first three rooms, 1989, 1970 and 1952 were very thought provoking bring to the forefront the issues of democracy, freedom and oppression. The exhibits about the law and reticence of the GDR police/military have massive relevance to today in both parts of Europe but also the USA.

The exhibition also includes a room on the Staufenberg plot, where a plaque includes the inscription,

The liberation by getting rid of Hitler came so close for a moment and then failed in the end. But then I thought, it’s alright like that. The officers who had planned the assassination had never held it against Hitler that he had started the war; now they just held it against him that he lost it. … Germany should be completely defeated.

Marie Jalowicz Simon

The museum also examines the invasion of the Rhineland, the fall of the Mueller government marking the end of the Weimar republic, the revolutions of 1916/18 where there were attempts to retain the Kaiser, and they argue the fatal flaw of poorly defined presidential power was adopted,  the Seven Week war that led to the expulsion of Austria from the German federation and finishing with the revolutions of 1848.

It closes on the 22 March 2026, people that share my interests might like to go to Berlin to see this. …

Single market, customs union and a poison pill.

Single market, customs union and a poison pill.

In an article, Starmer prepares for parliamentary battles over imminent EU ‘reset’ bill, jessicaelgot suggested that there is movement on the “red lines”. It is clearer on reading that this is an attempt to accelerate UK agreement to the currently on-going trade negotiations by increasing the powers of the relevant ministers.

The article uses the phrase swiss-style agreement which is highly unlikely to succeed and at the best is tone deaf as to the EU’s needs and wants.  

UK in a changing Europe, document what they see as the timetable and goals of the current reset negotiations.I see them as optimistic, and everyone seems to forget that the EU’s starting point is full implementation of the withdrawal agreement and Windsor framework; there remain, even 18 months after the general election, eight infringement proceedings unresolved.

It’s sort of interesting that they think they need new language, but to me, they have not yet changed their mind.

I also see this as a means by which the Government deflects the internal Labour Party pressure towards joining the Customs Union by posing, parts of, the single market as an alternative. It is disappointing to see so many seeing the Customs Union as sufficient advance, but the UK economy and people need and want membership of both, including, reciprocal, free movement of  people.

Labour should join the customs union and single market now and promise to rejoin the EU in its next election manifesto.

Various news sources, including the Brussels Times, report that EU is demanding a “poison pill” clause in further agreements, to make the cost of revoking the new treaties exorbitant. This should have been proposed by the UK side, and without it negotiations would stop.

I predict they won’t until they abandon the strategy of triangulating against reform and that will take significant personnel changes in the Government.

Image: from PIxabay, their licence …

Starmer, Labour and the Redlines

Starmer, Labour and the Redlines

Starmer on an interview on the BBC, reported in the Guardian, said he wanted closer alignment with the EU and its single market but no return to freedom of movement nor the customs union. In fact the reports suggest that he is presenting a new language for the current policy to try and stop the momentum towards the customs union. I don’t think this is an advance although he may change his mind; he often does, usually after some poor front bencher has just defended the policy. It’s all very, “The thick of it”.

This story was also reported in the FT, BBC & Independent. The BBC report is much clearer that there has been no change to the “Red Lines”.

 …

On public debt, yields and its affordability

On public debt, yields and its affordability

The government and Labour MPs seem fascinated by bond yields. They present the fact that UK yields are high is seen as a short cut to arguing that the Government can’t afford the interest rates on bonds and arguing that the last word on the deficit has to be held by the markets.

This article looks at what the ‘yield’ actually is, argues it is the outcome of policy decisions, that rising yields have no effect or at least very little effect on public finances. It also argues that quantitative tightening makes the affordability of the deficit worse and that alternative debt management operations would ease the situation. It also suggests that the credit default swap price is a better indicator of the market assessment of the viability of public finances. …

The single market

The single market

The number of senior labour movement figures have argued over the Christmas break that the UK should seek to rejoin the European Union’s customs union. They leave out a call to rejoin the single market.

The customs union relates to tariffs, the single market governs common non tariff import barriers on goods & services. The single market also deals with freedom of movement of capital and labour.

I question whether joining the customs union is sufficient to deliver the increased growth that is proponents and the country seems to want.

Obviously, the single market opens the issues of free movement of people and trade sovereignty (as does the customs union). Now that it’s understood, British people seemed to want to return to the free movement and there is no national sovereignty in international trade.

I believe that the UK should join the customs union and single market now, and that Labour should put a rejoin promise in the next manifesto.

The near-fetishist concentration on in trade and economics suggests that most of our parliamentarians are not yet ready to be good citizens within the European Union. It is necessary that they change their minds, and Labour must play its part bringing this about.

The UK was and will be a better place to live within the European Union. …

A breeze in Downing Street

A breeze in Downing Street

Are we moving closer to joining the EU? It's been quite an eventful month, culminating in Wes Streeting’s call for the UK to join the EU’s Customs Union. This article looks at the current state of thinking of HMG on negotiations with the EU, comments on the velocity and direction of travel, contrasting the red lines vs the numerous programme adoptions, recent polling evidence that a majority of people in the UK now want to rejoin, the House of Commons vote on rejoining the customs union, and the announcement of the UK’s rejoining Erasmus+, the EU’s student exchange scheme. It concludes looking at a Guardian EB piece questioning if British Politics is fit to survive the current challenges and the Labour Party’s abysmal response. The full article, is overleaf, use the "Read More" to see it ...

A manifesto for the Labour Movement for Europe

I am standing for election to the LME national committee in the London region.

I’ve been a member of the LME for many years.

It’s interesting that over the last couple of weeks it seems that even the government recognises that we need a better trade agreement with the European Union and that the “reset” is not going well.

Mood is not enough.

The simplest and most complete relationship is of course full membership which I support. We need to rejoin.

Brexit is a mistake and more and more people realise this.

But the UK cannot rejoin the European Union until it is ready to be good citizens, this will not happen without Labour commitment and leadership.

If elected I will seek to bring the LME to a position where it campaigns to rejoin the single market in preparation for rejoining the European Union and calls on the Party to commit to full membership of the EU and to argue for rejoining as good citizens.

This Labour government has the impossible policy of seeking to Fix Brexit; this is not possible. The Labour Government’s cherry-picking approach is making little headway and the claim that they will not sign deals not in the interests of the British people while pursuing a topic by topic approach makes achieving deals at speed exceedingly hard and provokes resistance in the European Union and its member states.

Labour needs to commit to rejoining when the time is right, commit to joining the single market as soon as possible i.e. this parliament and if elected to the National Committee, I will do my best to see that the LME plays a role in bringing Labour to these positions.

That’s what I want to do, and that’s why I want to be on the committee as I think my views will make a difference however I’m a lifelong IT worker having worked in development, operations, and policy, finishing with time in privacy compliance. I also served on committees running the predecessor to the EU’s Horizon Europe programme. These skills and experience might be useful to the committee and organisation.

I am on the national committee of Another Europe, and work with Citizens Takeover Europe. I am a Labour Party member in Lewisham North.

The vote is by a preferential voting system, I’d ask for your first preference and to transfer to anyone else who argues that we need to rejoin.

Image Credit: by me, CC 2017 dfl1955 BY-SA …

UK–EU Defence: Stronger Together

UK–EU Defence: Stronger Together

How damaging is the European union’s rejection of the UK’s attempts to join its SAFE programme; SAFE Is the European Union’s new defence funding programme.

The most succinct report that I can find is on Euroweekly News in an article, entitled, “UK excluded from €150bn EU defence deal” which states that,

On November 28, the UK government announced that negotiations to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence fund had failed, marking a significant blow to what had been billed as a “reset” of UK‑EU post‑Brexit relations.

However, Euroweekly News, also states that SAFE has a 35% access to 3rd party countries, which some might consider generous given that the programme is to be funded by ECB bond issue of €150bn. The cap is however per contract which would, almost certainly, for instance, make selling warships ineligible for SAFE funding, not to mention the fact that numerous EU countries can build both warships and warplanes. The EU were asking for a UK contribution, some might say, a large contribution, to the fund, before lifting the cap to 50%. It also interests me that the whole argument is about selling to the EU, and not the UK buying European weapons, although the Euro benefit to this is massively undermined by the UK decision to buy US warplanes and more US nukes.

The UK proving once again that it is “a nation of shopkeepers” walked away from this deal.

Defence co-operation was meant to be the most advanced topic of the EU-UK May reset agreement. Even with defence on the table, cherry-picking is unacceptable to the European Union as is the UK’s insistence that every deal must benefit the UK.

Image Credit: NATO …

Untimely Atlanticism, a note on the UK-US Tech Prosperity Deal

Untimely Atlanticism, a note on the UK-US Tech Prosperity Deal

I wrote a response to the US/UK Technology deal which was eventually published in the Chartist Magazine. They entitled it, “Untimely Atlanticism” with a sub title, “US AI data centres drain power and offer little for UK jobs while in Europe opportunities call “. The rest of the article, is overleaf, behind the "Read More" button. I talk about the new data centres, their immense scale, the digital colonialism, the import implications of the deal, and question the short term and long term economic benefits of AI. I finish by oitin g out the European co-operation might be more beneficial. ...

On the autumn statement 2026

On the autumn statement 2026

A quick note on the budget, remembering I wasn’t as critical of last year’s as some, at least not on macro-economic grounds. I was obviously against the failure to abolish the two child cap, but also against the failure to properly fund universities, students, and local government.

So this budget is, to me, a bit meh and I agree with Fisher, why wait for a year? Still nothing on HE or Local Government finance, and the wealth taxation is very weak and poorly focused. No capital gains tax equalisation, no financial transaction tax.

The freezing of tax free allowance amounts is probably more damaging to those on the margin of the upper rate tax band but as I read it, it’s a piece of accounting magic. There were no plans to change it for the next two tax years anyway, and they can change their minds, although some of the impact will occur after the next election.

Also the FT reports that leading business people consider it insufficiently stimulating of growth, which in their case is probably not code for, “We need to rejoin the single market and customs union.”, although there are many, including me and Liz Webster, that are saying so; our macro-economic arguments recently augmented by a report from the US non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research and by Ryan Bourne’s recanting of his pro-Brexit position.

Image Credit: from freemalaysiatoday cc 2024 by …