The LibDems are going to struggle. Will Labour get three MEPs? Will Jean Lambert, the Green keep her seat?
After the ORG hustings, I had a brief word with Claude Moraes about the likely results, whether Labour would win more seats and if Sarah Ludford, the sole London LibDem MEP would hold on. The following day, the Evening standard published an article quoting a YouGov poll, putting Labour well in the front in London. The Standard’s article sadly doesn’t quote its YouGov source, which may have been private and it does not mention the Greens. The most recent YouGov report I can find is dated early May, and is here. In addition the counting method is complex. I have sought to see what the results in London might be based on what data I have. The following forecasts,
Source | When | Lab | Tory | UKIP | Green | Lib Dem |
Standard | 15 May | 37% | 23% | 21% | 9% | 9% |
You Gov | 6 May | 30% | 23% | 21% | 11% | 10% |
give the following results,
Source | When | Lab | Tory | UKIP | Green | Lib Dem |
Standard | 15 May | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 or none | 1 or none |
You Gov | 6 May | 2 or 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 or none |
Ludford and the LibDems are going to struggle. Will Labour get three? Will Jean Lambert, the Green keep her seat?
I am accurately reporting the Standard but examining the votes table above begs the question as to where the Labour votes came from; the votes do not add up to 100%. This is due to me (and the Standard) truncating the other categories used by YouGov and not reporting them. I have assumed/guessed that two percent have come from the Greens but I may still be overestimating the Green vote.
ooOOOoo
For those interested, my spreadsheet is here….
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This page needed a minor edit in July 2018, and I amended some of the content. I revisited how to count a D’Hondt list result in August 2017 and commented on my blog, in an article called “Counting” & wiki, in an article called “On D’Hondt”. I removed some content that these articles superseded.