This isn’t going well. “The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday said its long-running prediction is “broadly on track” to show a 15% fall in trade and a 4% reduction in the UK economy’s potential productivity compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU”. Here are some notes and links …
A GDP chart would be better.
Links
- Pipe-dream or inevitability or [on Medium], by me, a reply to Larry Elliot’s “it’s not so bad & I was right in 2016”, he is wrong on both counts. I look at the figures, and 2016 forecasts, including the Gini co-efficient and answer his suggestion that by staying out, we can inoculate ourselves from the rise of the far right. We can’t!
- https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/
- Three Years On, Brexit Casts a Long Shadow Over the UK Economy, from the Tony Blair Institute: six charts, on trade volume & impact, red tape, investment (this is devastating), overall performance & forecasts and the negligible impact of new trade deals.
- https://www.economist.com/britain/2023/01/03/the-impact-of-brexit-in-charts
- Brexit vote has left U.K.’s economy 5% worse off, Goldman Sachs economists say from Fortune Magazine, the full quote is “The British economy is 5% worse off since Brexit, which officially happened about four years ago, as it has stalled trade and investment activity in the country”. CNBC also write an article on the back of the Goldman’s statement. They say, “Goldman Sachs attributed the economic shortfall to three key factors: reduced trade; weaker business investment; and labor shortages as a result of lower immigration from the EU.”
- GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators a research briefing from the House of Commons Library
- https://www.brexitspotlight.org/measuring-the-brexit-impact-on-the-economy-the-evidence-that-points-to-a-self-inflicted-calamity/, the FT diagram above comes from this article.
- UK Is ‘On Track’ for 4% Hit to Economy From Brexit, OBR Says from Bloomberg (£), but they say, “The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday said its long-running prediction is “broadly on track” to show a 15% fall in trade and a 4% reduction in the UK economy’s potential productivity compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU”
- Remain by me, in 2016, where I first published my collection of forecasts.