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Posted by Dave on

Estimation Errors

Estimation Errors

Is there any theory that talks to human optimism or pessimism when making estimates in the context of contracts. I have worked with project managers who when estimating effort & duration look to counter the uplift applied by people who think they’re going to have to do what they’re estimating and will be treated more harshly for being late than early. There’s some type I & type II error stuff here. I think it also applies to risk probability estimation, the cost of not reserving and the reputation damage to the assessor (of under estimating) may both lead to an over-estimate being made.

Surowiecki, in wisdom of crowds states that the betting exchanges (and books) are accurate estimators more so than opinion polls because people have measurable stake in the decision.

Has anyone written about this?

Posted by Dave on

User Styles & Stylish

I experimented with User Styles when I was using the old NWN Vault, because their look and feel was terrible, the vault has gone now and the code i.e. the customisations are held on the browser’s disk, so a growing use of cloud computing challenges this as an answer, but overwriting the CSS  can be quite cool.

Posted by Dave on

Auto-translating a web page

Auto-translating a web page

This page was originally set up in 2015 when looking at using REST to invoke web site translations. My original code is still available on the test web site and below but Google & Babelfish have changed their APIs. I decided to refactor the page in 2022. The changes in the google API have been significant and my ambitions of including popular first languages in the UK led me to implement the gtranslate widget in 2022. This post has some use if you want to copy the version 2 code, but I have marked the page as ‘deprecated’.

Posted by Dave on

Multiple Audio channels on Windows 8

Multiple Audio channels on Windows 8

For various reasons at work, I am mucking around with multiple audio channels, from mic to disk, from mic to app, etc.. Windows 8, doesn’t seem to have an easy way to switch, or at least the sound control panel applet is hidden away behind several buttons…. no it’s not, searching for sound will find it. I was going to look for a switcher , here’s what google finds! What we really want is plug and play, but how does it know which one is the one I really need.

Posted by Dave on

Crossroads Keep

Crossroads Keep

In my run through Neverwinter Nights 2, I have come to the Keep, which is the Stronghold for the protagonist. I have never played D&D with a “stronghold” before and this one would seem to have a lot of playing within it. I hope it doesn’t lead to too much of the resource based gamesplay style; but it seems there’s plenty of fetch and carry quests and Kana looks ready to keep me busy.

Posted by Dave on

Donating via Pay Pal

Donating via Pay Pal

This page is not a request for donations; I am considering how to set up Pay Pal collections for others. This seems easier than one might expect. A three stage process mainly managed by Pay Pal. Open a non-profit account, use pay pal’s tools to generate the HTML, include it in your web page. Bosh! Loadsamoney, well, maybe not.

Posted by Dave on

New looks for web sites

New looks for web sites

Good web design is changing again. Is it the influence of the growth of mobile devices? It’s certainly influenced my adoption of Nulis on the blog. They are picture rich, with lots of white space, borderless and short columns (often implementing lists) and strong rows! (They also tend to go to the second page by racking down, thus saving the delay of a page refresh.)

http://www.threatmatch.com/ is one example and http://guardtime.com/ is another. I have used a picture from Guardtime as my featured picture on this post. Both these sites are offering IT Security solutions, but they are both  an inspiration. At least to me.

Posted by Dave on

Huppert’s parliamentary record

Huppert’s parliamentary record

I have been considering Julian Huppert’s record as an MP and have come across the following resources to help me understand it. I have of course seen him speak at the last three OrgCON conferences,  the recent Digital Question time and in the Westminster Hall debate on Snowden & GCHQ, which I reviewed in my blog article, “Who watches the Watchmen?”. I also talk about him here, in an article called “Grandstanding”. where I examine the growing trivialisation of his position dated from his support of Drip. It seems he’s been bugging me for a while, here’s more of my ranting. In this last piece I suggest he puts his party before the cause , and it now would seem that he now puts himself before his party.  We should note that the “Public Whip” documents his acts of rebellion to the ConDem government at 3.5%.