Analysing the 2019 Election Results

In order to answer the questions I want answered I need the election results in spreadsheet form. I have previously got this from the Electoral Commission; it took ’em 18 days to get it out last time, wonder what the delay is this time. Eventually, I was pointed at the House of Commons Library Page, and have posted the results by constituency .xlsx file to this site (it became available on the 28th Jan). I originally made some notes about retrieving the results from the Democracy Club. Here are my notes. … Continue reading “Analysing the 2019 Election Results”

DataPraxis and the Results

One of the first commentators on the General Election was a new outfit called DataPraxis, anyway new to me. The report, Tory Landslide, Progressives split is published as a tightly defined .pdf and is behind a use once cookie controlled access scheme. It’s very hard to share, navigate & mine. Here’s what I have done to try and make my access easier. …

I mirrored the .pdf and bookmarked it in diigo. I then used https://www.pdftohtml.net/ to make an html version which can be found here.

This article has a SURL: https://wp.me/pauVx4-1dL

Class Wargames & the ECW

I have been/am still reading Richard Barbrook’s book, “Class Wargames”. Among its many fascinating themes is his study of the collapse of democratic military forces into dictatorship.He name checks Napoleon, Toussaint Louverture & the Russian Revolution. I wonder why he didn’t start earlier with the English Civil War, it would seem to me to be another failure of a democratic military. To him, Guy Debord’s “Game of War” is critically important, partly because of the way it abstracts large elements of military conflict, but they adopted different rules, using miniatures for both the Haitian and Russian Civil War scenarios. How easy would it be to find or adapt some ECW rules? Here are my notes … Continue reading “Class Wargames & the ECW”

Criminality and the Referendum

The story of the criminal cheating on the Vote Leave campaign is long and complex, and there seems to be a ground rush effect as the election approaches. The issues are breach of personal privacy laws, over spending, covering up the overspending. It is possible that there have been breaches of the transparency rules, and that some money came from prohibited foreign sources. Here are some links and notes. Continue reading “Criminality and the Referendum”

Consitituencies: Leave or Remain

One of the most important issues in the 2019 general elections will be Brexit; that’ why its been called. Polls are proving inaccurate so the only data we have is the 2016 Referendum which was counted and results released at Local Authority level. I am deeply interested in knowing how consitiuencies votes and I am not alone. Here are my notes. Continue reading “Consitituencies: Leave or Remain”

Multiple Choice Voting systems

So as the rerun of the referendum becomes more likely, some people are considering a multiple choice; the problem is how to weight and count the votes. It interests me that instant run off is people’s first port of call, and I have some links that refer to it. On first site, the problem is that instant run off fails to weight people’s commitment to their 1st vs. 2nd choice. This problem is what Parliaments are designed to solve; the polity can negotiate 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices and negotiate the importance of each packages features, this may be impossible in an instant run-off election. On further reading, I came across the two theorems that state all ranked voting systems enable tactical voting and so I add, may not be able to win loser’s consent. This article became a commentary on Voting Systems; some clever people have thought hard about this and it’s not simple. For much more see below/overleaf … Continue reading “Multiple Choice Voting systems”

On Presidentialism

While writing and thinking about the democratic legitimacy of the Referendum, I discovered the work of Juan J Linz. On, my article, Dictatorship and plebiscites I had been pointed at Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe a review by Fukiyama of Linz & Stepan’s revised work on Autocracy, which was also referenced by Qvortrup, Here is a mirror, on this site. The Fukiyama piece is very short and more of a plug than a review. I found the Linz paper, and here are further notes on Presidentialism and Parliaments. Continue reading “On Presidentialism”

On the fitness of Keith Vaz

Over the summer of 2019, Keith Vaz reused his medical condition to have decisions of Labour’ NEC Disputes Committee reviewed. It’s not the first time and raises the question of whether you can be partially sick. Obviously in employment, one can be recommended ‘light duties’ or employers can be made to make “reasonable adjustments” in the case of disability. How should these be applied to MPs? Here are my notes and links on the Vaz cas. …  Continue reading “On the fitness of Keith Vaz”